Party 200+15, I called off all my chips with A9 in level 4...

michw · #1 05-31-2005, 08:20 PM

Usually I 3 or 4 table the 33's, but on occasion I will play a single 215 just for kicks. I'm pretty sure playing my basic 33 game won't get the money in the long run and am trying to learn about some of the adjustments that need to be made at the 215's. Here's a hand I played last night.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

Hero (t1000)
UTG (t1265)
MP1 (t2754)
MP2 (t1294)
CO (t986)
Button (t1811)
SB (t890)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, SB is all-In t840, Hero calls t790.

Flop: (t1780) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t1780) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t1780) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t1780

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9s Ad (three of a kind, aces).
SB has 7s Jd (two pair, aces and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t1780. 

OK, so the call worked for me in this particular hand, but I'm not sure how smart it was. In a Party 33 tourney I most likely will not make this call. However, one of the assumptions I've made about the 215's, is that people's pushing standards are much more relaxed in level 4 and beyond when compared to the 33's. In the 33's many players will limp or min-raise in this situation rather than push. Below I crunch some numbers that may shed some light on this decision.

1) If I assume that J7 is at the bottom of the SB's push range and run an ICM calculation -> calling is worth 10.9% of the prize pool, while folding is worth 9.8% of the prize pool, which shows the call to be marginally correct.

2) If I assume the Sb would push with any 2, which maybe isn't an unreasonable assumption since he pushed with J7, and run an ICM calculation -> calling is worth 12.0% of the prize pool, while folding is worth 9.8% of the prize pool, which shows the call was definitely correct.

3) If I give the Sb a tighter push range, AA-66, AKs-A7s, AKo-A70, KQs, and KQo, and run an ICM calculation -> calling is worth 8.3% of the prize pool while folding is worth 9.8% of the prize pool, which shows the call to be incorrect.

Obviously the decision is really player dependent and at the time I had no read on the SB. In what category does the typical 215er reside? Was this a terrible call? It kind of feels that way to me right now.

freemoney · #2 05-31-2005, 08:22 PM

yes very bad call.

Jman28 · #3 05-31-2005, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

1) If I assume that J7 is at the bottom of the SB's push range and run an ICM calculation -> calling is worth 10.9% of the prize pool, while folding is worth 9.8% of the prize pool, which shows the call to be marginally correct.

2) If I assume the Sb would push with any 2, which maybe isn't an unreasonable assumption since he pushed with J7, and run an ICM calculation -> calling is worth 12.0% of the prize pool, while folding is worth 9.8% of the prize pool, which shows the call was definitely correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really your answer. If you had good reason to believe either of these were his pushing ranges, and these calculations were correct, then you made the right play.

Against most players, I don't think I'd make it myself.

citanul · #4 05-31-2005, 08:31 PM

if your opponent's pushing range is wide, then this call is probably +EV and +cEV, yes. that is true i guess. however it is not a great call anyway.

the point is that by making this call, when you lose you are passing up the opportunity to make more good plays later. pushing from whatever spot it's next folded to you with whatever it is you get dealt is likely going to have a larger bump in EV and cEV than making this call.

many things about ICM rely on the assumption that you are the same skill as all your opponents. it may be that you don't feel that you are as good as your opponents, in which case calls that are very "thin" become closer to correct. but i doubt that you feel that you are so bad that you don't know how to steal a set of blinds.

if you play a lot of high level games and play a lot with the same players, scattering in a few calls *like* this (probably not just like this, but slightly better spots) against people who will remember it inter-game is ok too. because it will make them less and less likely to steal with any two if they think they stand a fair chance of getting called. image plays like that are clearly not the most useful thing for your shots at the 200s though.

citanul

treeofwisdom7 · #5 05-31-2005, 08:42 PM

its a very good call.. GJ

it doesnt make sense to say that doing the wrong thing is correct.. that just means your not looking at the problem correctly

The Yugoslavian · #6 05-31-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yes very bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really...it depends.

That being said, I don't like a $33 player making this call though....no way he has a good enough read on the SB by now (generally anyway) to call here. Also, if you're not planning on playing that many 215s I can't see the bump in your image being all that helpful either.

Yugoslav