pair of jacks + flush draw against a preflop capper. when to raise?

TStoneMBD · #1 05-28-2005, 08:54 AM

villain is 28/24/4.8 after 106 hands.

at this point, im thinking that my pair of jacks is probably the best hand, but if its not i have good equity with the flush draw. should i raise the turn here, or should i wait for the river, or should i just call down unimproved?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

krishanleong · #2 05-28-2005, 09:05 AM

I would have raise the flop, called the 3-bet and raised the turn. The flush draw just makes the turn raise even easier. Stats look pretty maniacal.

I think against people who don't pay flop raises any attention, not getting a couple bets in on the flop with a solid hand is a mistake.

Krishan

jogumon · #3 05-28-2005, 01:56 PM

Wow, your opponent has weird stats. Relatively tight in terms of hand selection, but once he's decided to play a hand, he's going crazy. Looks like he'll just keep betting and raising you until you either fold, or show so much aggression yourself, he backs down.

He would have capped the flop with any hand he would have orignally raised with, which is about a quarter of the hands he's dealt. With TPTK here, you're ahead of almost his entire, extremely large, range of hands. Now you get to take over his strategy. Just keep betting and raising his ass. If he caps the turn on you, you can just call down on the river unimproved.

wheelz · #4 05-28-2005, 04:13 PM

I think against a guy that aggro I cap the flop then call down UI if he's still betting at me.

Am I a weakling for not wanting to raise the turn if we cap the flop? He's a bit nuts, but he did cap from UTG...

StellarWind · #5 05-28-2005, 06:15 PM

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villain is 28/24/4.8 after 106 hands.

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The sample size is small and Bayes' Theorem applies here. People who really play this way are unusual compared to normal TAGs. The probability that this player is actually a normal TAG on a rush is much higher than it might appear. Be careful using these stats.

I certainly might have raised the flop. I think he is much more likely to 3-bet me with the worse hand on the flop. Flop raises aren't taken seriously and he could easily play back with overcards or second pair. When you wait for the turn with this hand he is likely to only 3-bet hands that beat you.

But you smoothcalled and we need to play the turn. Waiting until the river to put our raise in is bad for at least two reasons:

1. Based on my distrust of the stats, I fear he will checkcall the river with unimproved overcards.

2. You want to be 3-bet by a better hand while you still have outs. He is much less likely to 3-bet the river with KK after the club flush hits. Ditto if you pick up another jack.

[ QUOTE ]
or should i just call down unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good line against a tight/passive [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. This guy looks more like Hans Solo charging the Imperial Stormtroopers. You need to make him pay for playing this way.

gaming_mouse · #6 05-28-2005, 06:31 PM

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I certainly might have raised the flop. I think he is much more likely to 3-bet me with the worse hand on the flop. Flop raises aren't taken seriously and he could easily play back with overcards or second pair. When you wait for the turn with this hand he is likely to only 3-bet hands that beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar,

VN analysis. If Hero had bet the flop and been 3-bet, would you have called down after that (assuming you don't improve to a flush)? Still raised the turn? Raised the river given a chance to?

StellarWind · #7 05-28-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
VN analysis. If Hero had bet the flop and been 3-bet, would you have called down after that (assuming you don't improve to a flush)? Still raised the turn? Raised the river given a chance to?

[/ QUOTE ]
If I get 3-bet on the flop the turn decision seems close. Certainly I will never fold so putting in another raise means giving him 2-1 odds.

A concern is that if he is playing AK/AQ the raise could backfire:

1. He may dump his 3-outer instead of putting a bet in on the river.

2. Or he may peel a card but decide to checkfold the river unimproved. In this case I gain nothing when the river misses him, I lose an extra bet or two when he hits his kicker (3 outs), and I win an extra bet or two when he hits his ace (2 outs). On average I lose.

Remember that his very high AF suggests that he is quick to release a hand. He's not just out-of-control.

Probably the best idea is to raise the turn with the flush draw because of the extra equity but just call down completely unimproved.

gaming_mouse · #8 05-28-2005, 11:17 PM

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Remember that his very high AF suggests that he is quick to release a hand. He's not just out-of-control.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, nice analysis.

As to the above, couldn't the high AF mean either thing. As it is just the proportion of bet/raise : call, you can get very high by being a maniac who always raises, or by being someone who bets alot and folds alot. Right?