Calling an all in blind

[young nut]

I was watching the final table of the party Million tournament and I witnessed two fold that seemed very very bad. I don't know if my line of thinking is correct so that is why I ask you to evaluate these hands and tell me if a fold is good or bad.

1st hand, 8 players left, 15k/30k

folds to button who pushes all in for 80,000
SB folds
BB folds?

On this hand there was 125,000 chips in the pot when it got to the BB. He was getting 2.5:1 on his call. This seems like a terrible fold to me. And I am wondering if he should call this without even looking at his hole cards. (and btw, he had plenty of chips, he was the 2nd largest stack at the table)

A similar hand occured later:

MP pushes 88k
folds to BB (chipleader), who folds.
133,000 in pot, 58,000 to call, so almost 2.5:1

Do you call hands like these blind getting more than 2:1?

Also is 2:1 the point at which you call with any hand, assuming you have a few chips you are willing to risk.

[ZBTHorton]

In some cases, maybe they think it is worth it to pass up in fear they double up a player?

[ThrillFactor]

Money was going up $10K a pop at this point.

Spots like this are where you hear people discussing how chip EV and $EV start to diverge. Just because a call from the blinds getting 2.5:1 may be + CEV, doesn't mean that it's +$EV. The risk of giving a short-stack another t60K (2BB) of ammunition might not be worth it with a truly poor holding.

[young nut]

[ QUOTE ]
Money was going up $10K a pop at this point.

Spots like this are where you hear people discussing how chip EV and $EV start to diverge. Just because a call from the blinds getting 2.5:1 may be + CEV, doesn't mean that it's +$EV. The risk of giving a short-stack another t60K (2BB) of ammunition might not be worth it with a truly poor holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are saying, but what about the $ev of eliminating another player? I mean, another $10k is a pretty nice little jump. Given the range of pushing hands for the button here, I think any hand stands a decent chance against it.

[ThrillFactor]

I think for me a lot of it would also have to do with my stack size as chip leader. I know in this one with 8 left the chip leader was huge with over 1M in chips. I would have to to have a truly aweful hand to fold for 60K. But if I recall, 2nd stack around that time prob had about 400K or so. For him that 60K is obviously a much greater % of his stack - an amount I might not be willing to risk when I know I'm putting the chips in as a big underdog.


Another thing to think about in this case was that chip-leader was huge over everyone else. Very much in the driver's seat. In much like a bubble situation, why knock out the shortie when you can continue to pound the table with raises and steal blinds at 45K a pop while everyone waits for the little guy to bust?

Another thought. Right now you have those 60K chips tied up. If you put them back into play on a hand that you know you'll prob lose, you're going to have to do battle with them again at some point and then they may turn to 120K... then 240K, etc.


Not saying any of these thoughts are absolute, but I do think that this late in the tourney with the steep payout structure, it may be correct to pass on some marginal pot-odds situations.

[young nut]

[ QUOTE ]
I think for me a lot of it would also have to do with my stack size as chip leader. I know in this one with 8 left the chip leader was huge with over 1M in chips. I would have to to have a truly aweful hand to fold for 60K. But if I recall, 2nd stack around that time prob had about 400K or so. For him that 60K is obviously a much greater % of his stack - an amount I might not be willing to risk when I know I'm putting the chips in as a big underdog.


Another thing to think about in this case was that chip-leader was huge over everyone else. Very much in the driver's seat. In much like a bubble situation, why knock out the shortie when you can continue to pound the table with raises and steal blinds at 45K a pop while everyone waits for the little guy to bust?

Another thought. Right now you have those 60K chips tied up. If you put them back into play on a hand that you know you'll prob lose, you're going to have to do battle with them again at some point and then they may turn to 120K... then 240K, etc.


Not saying any of these thoughts are absolute, but I do think that this late in the tourney with the steep payout structure, it may be correct to pass on some marginal pot-odds situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the reply, some good points of view there.