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#1
12-02-2002, 01:54 PM
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early round adjustment needed?
online, single-table freezeout limit game. Table is laden with loose calling stations. One such calling station (CS) will only bet or raise with hands he thinks are really big. We're in the second round (25/50 stakes), and I have about 700T (everyone started with 800T).
5 limpers (including CS in late MP) to the button, a solid player who raises. I call with 88, BB and everyone else calls. 8 to the flop. Flop: 28T rainbow. Sweeeet. I bet out, get six callers (I did consider the checkraise option, but that's for another post, another day). Turn: [Q] 28T complete rainbow. I bet again, two callers, CS raises, folded to me. My read: 40% QT, 40% J9, 20% QJ or Q8. In a typical low-limit game, this would be an auto-reraise for me, since I'm still likely ahead, and have outs if I'm not. On the other hand, I'm dealing with a finite bankroll, and those 100T chips will certainly come in handy later if this doesn't work out. Should I be calling, then check-calling this situation, or is the 3-bet still a must here? 
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#2
12-02-2002, 02:30 PM
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Re: early round adjustment needed?
If the two callers might stay (for 1 bet, but not 2), call, otherwise reraise: the 100 chips you can win are worth as much as the 100 you might lose at this stage.
Craig
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#3
12-02-2002, 02:34 PM
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Re: early round adjustment needed?
Don't forget, if he has the nut straight, he'll be putting in another raise. That means we're talking about putting in 1 bet (your call) or 3 bets (your raise and his reraise). Based on your numbers, if you call you're putting in 1 bet where you're a substantial favorite 60% of the time and a substantial dog 40%. If you raise, you're putting in 3 bets where you're a dog 40% of the time, and 2 bets (he just calls) where you're a substantial favorite 60% of the time.
As it turns out in this case, you should just call. If you call, you're getting about 60:40 the best of it for 1 bet. If you raise, you're getting the best of it for 2 bets about 60%, and the worst of it for 3 bets about 40% of the time, which is roughly break-even. You actually are doing better than break-even because when you're ahead, he has only 2-4 outs, while when he's ahead you have 10 outs. However, your EV is higher by calling than by raising. If the board pairs on the river, you still just call, unless it's the 2 or the 8 that pairs. If the Q or T pairs, you are ahead that 40% of the time he has the straight, and you'll win 1 bet. But, when he has two pair you lose two bets to the bigger full. Of course, the T could pair when he was holding Q8 and you then fail to win a bet by checking, but you still should check. If he were a loose, aggressive player, you could probably correctly decide to put in 3-4 bets on the turn and river, expecting to win much more often than you lose. Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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#4
12-02-2002, 02:56 PM
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Re: early round adjustment needed?
Greg,
Excellent points all. I think I left out the key to the reraise strategy: the two players between me and him were horrible calling stations. If they had any of this board (e.g. any pair but the 2, gutshot draws), they'd call one or two more bets without hesitation. The auto-reraise I mentioned was largely to profit from these guys. You make an excellent point that he's not going to cap it without the nuts. I really hadn't factored that into my numbers... Really helps to sell the calling option.
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#5
12-02-2002, 06:16 PM
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Re: early round adjustment needed?
The math really changes if you add callers. Also, if he caps, you know he has the nuts, so you can fold the river the times you don't improve, so it seems that Greg over-calculated the price of reraising.
Craig
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#6
12-02-2002, 06:55 PM
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Re: early round adjustment needed?
"Also, if he caps, you know he has the nuts, so you can fold the river the times you don't improve, so it seems that Greg over-calculated the price of reraising."
-In a microcosm, I agree with you, but I still would (and did) call this river unimproved. As it turned out, the remaining action was the other two folding, CS capping, and me calling. Granted, J9 had gone up from a 40% probability to a 95% probability, but there was still that remote chance of QT. Plus, I didn't want to alert the media that I was willing to lay down a solid holding heads-up on the river. Good points all, though... I will certainly keep this all in mind the next time the situation presents itself.
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