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#1
05-10-2005, 11:22 AM
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Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
Author's note: Written while tired; sorry about vulgarity and bad grammar.
---- K, here's an interesting twist on an old and retarded question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] --- Most pros, inc. Negreanu say that you should treat poker as one long session. Meaning focus on the long term results and don't break your winnings into daily / weekly / hourly / quarterly segments. Sklansky says that if you know someone's in a difficult financial situation that they're trying to escape from (though gambling), you should do your best to minimize variance against them, because you don't want to build them up high enough that they'll be able to leave before you get their chips. Let's say someone offered you 3:2 on a single coin flip, in your favour, but only once, for a manageable portion of your assets... you'd do it, even though there was only one sample, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So... --------- Before moving, I was in a live NLHE game that had 1/2 blinds, I was decently covered for and which had recently become slightly tougher (so my swings were a bit bigger and a bit shaded towards the negative side, but I was still a winning player). A negative swing in a night could cost me as much as 1/5th of my poker roll (bad beats / bad plays, etc.). I've recently gotten used to these kinds of swings, but they can be pretty unnerving when you're in the middle of a session... Because I was leaving, I wouldn't have access to the game to continue to try to make my money back (and almost definitely succeed). Therefore I was left with a decision to make about whether or not I should play the week before I left (it was a weekly game). I decided to go for it and take my chances, and played my "A" game. I figured that a loss of 1/4 my roll, though heart-breaking, wouldn't be financially ruinous, and I could rebuild it, slowly, through LHE at lower stakes online. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So, other than avoiding the game because I'm a pussy (psychologically unfit to play for that session), is there an honest, good reason not to play? I think I made the right choice. I could be wrong about this, but I decided to take my best guess that the experts would say to play on, so I did it. FWIW, this happened about a month ago or so. I know the results, but won't share them... and it shouldn't matter. --Dave. 
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#2
05-10-2005, 12:26 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
It sounds like your not adequatley rolled for that game. I would never put 1/4 of my roll at risk regardless of how confident I was I could rebuild it unless I had a very strong belief that I was extremely likely to profit from the situation.
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#3
05-10-2005, 01:50 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like your not adequatley rolled for that game. I would never put 1/4 of my roll at risk regardless of how confident I was I could rebuild it unless I had a very strong belief that I was extremely likely to profit from the situation. [/ QUOTE ]
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#4
05-10-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like your not adequatley rolled for that game. I would never put 1/4 of my roll at risk regardless of how confident I was I could rebuild it unless I had a very strong belief that I was extremely likely to profit from the situation. [/ QUOTE ] What portion of your bankroll would you put at risk in NL on any given "average" session?
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#6
05-10-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
I don't play in home games... and I don't play NLHE tables online. I don't know what the risks, or swings are, or what an adequate bankroll means in NLHE tables.
If you have fun playing, and it wouldn't destroy you financially I can't see any reason not to play. Especially if you think you can make good decisions and not play too tight because you're being risk-averse on your last night. I think an equivalent situation would be getting a chance to go to Vegas with a small bankroll. Should you not play just because you have a small bankroll? If losing it means you can't do something, like pay rent or groceries or take your kids on some rides, then heck no, don't play. But if it is discretionary money, not needed for something else except maybe other gambling then I don't see why not. KO
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#8
05-10-2005, 10:21 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like your not adequatley rolled for that game. I would never put 1/4 of my roll at risk regardless of how confident I was I could rebuild it unless I had a very strong belief that I was extremely likely to profit from the situation. [/ QUOTE ] Didn't I saw I was adequately rolled? Edit: Nope. In NLHE, they generally view adequately rolled as 20-30x max buy. Losing 1/5 your roll is only losing 4 buy ins. This can be accomplished with ease (trust me!). Likewise, going on a 200 BB downswing in LHE is really possible, even over a period of 1k hands (yes, it happened to me, then I played another 1.5k hands and won back to -70 bb, which wasn't a terrible swing over 4k hands, but the -200 bb drop was weird... didn't bother me too much: I didn't stop playing for the day, as I'd only put in about 2.25 hrs.)... That would be 2/3 your roll, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Not in my case, but if you only had a minimum roll, then losing 200bb would be pretty threatening.
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#10
05-10-2005, 10:37 PM
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Re: Leaving a Game, Quitting While Ahead
Hmm... I didn't get any useful responses.
Let's pretend that this was a limit holdem game instead, which you guys know, and that I was adequately rolled, which I am. -------- Now: Should you play in a lucrative but high variance game (that you're adequately rolled for), ONE LAST NIGHT before you move, where if you end on a negative swing, you won't be able to recover it from this particularly lucrative game, but will have to instead hammer away at less lucrative games for a long period of time to earn back the money (i.e. two weeks). --Dave. True, life is one long freaking session. However, it's not going to be one long freaking session at this table again, at least for quite some time (god, not having a car SUCKS!). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Now what do you guys think? I'm curious about this from an academic standpoint, in case it happens again in the future...
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