10's ITM in party 30k guar. - Push, fold, or stop and go?

[remen]

This hand occurred in the Party Poker 30k guarenteed 20$ tourney. We are in the money with about 100 people left, real money is at top few spots as always and thats what I am playing for. I was moved to this table a few orbits ago so my reads aren't that strong. From what I have seen so far, the limp by MP1 doesn't mean anything as he has limped a bunch of times already. MP3 has limped a few times so far as well but hasn't raised yet, so his raise does represent some strength. I definitely think folding is the worst option here and was torn between pushing preflop or calling and pushing any flop. Any advice is greatly appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1500 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 (t14584)
MP2 (t33812)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 (t32276)</font>
CO (t26182)
Button (t7448)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t14638)</font>
BB (t22187)
UTG (t9945)
UTG+1 (t34058)
UTG+2 (t19793)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls t1500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t5000</font>, <font color="#666666">Hero ?</font>

[tiger7210]

MP3's raise certainly would have me concerned if you view him as a good player as it doen't really look like he wants the limper to fold.

If you view him as a weak player but will certainly make this raise with AT-AK middle pairs then I like calling and pushing on any flop unless you make your set.

The only problem there is calling definiely gives MP1 good odds to come along which puts you up against 2 players.

That being said, i push PF as I would rather get my TT's HU and hope he has a smaller pair or its a race or i suckout [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

You are absolutely correct that folding here is horrible with your stack size if you want to get deep.

[billyjex]

push. you have 10xbb and TT.

[ismisus]

FOLD. I know you're excited bout your TT, best hand in a while. Just stop thinking about your own hand, and start thinking about other hands. MP3, who doesn't really raise, raised just 5000. Unless he's not a good player, he has to have a higher pocket. There's an off chance he might have Ak, Aq, but unlikely with that small raise.

Fold is what PokerGenius would do. Despite having only 10BB, I trust you can get your money in with better than 4.3 to 1 dog.

When you push all in, if you hope for a coinflip, then remember you can get a coinflip whenever you want. Just push all in.

Edit: Also since you posted this, I assume he had Ak and won the coinflip. You were hoping to escape from the scenario by folding on the flop, which in poker theory doesn't make sense.

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
When you push all in, if you hope for a coinflip, then remember you can get a coinflip whenever you want. Just push all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love this quote. Not too sure about referring to yourself in the third person though.

I also think this is a fold. Saying you can't fold TT with 10BBs is 1st level thinking IMO, and unless you think the raiser can make this play with 99 or lower a good percentage of the time, I think you should fold this.

Take a coinflip somewhere else if that's what you want, one where you at least have a decent amount of FE.

[dcasper70]

Gotta agree with Genius. What range of hands would MP3 have for that raise (which is kind of an odd amount anyways)? Your fold gives BB or MP1 2-1 to call, let one of them play it out, and gather more info about MP3 for use later.
Muck it, you'll have better spots (like that 83o you're about to get on the button...).

[JonLines]

Hero has noticed that MP1's limp means nothing, as he has already limped a bunch of times. Does noone think MP3 would of noticed this as well? And dcasper, why is it an odd amount? That's a standard raise, 3-4 x BB. 3x BB, + 1 for each limper is a general raise.

Given MP3's stack, this does not scream monster to me, I would Make this move if I thought MP1 was likely to fold to a raise. 5000 raise to gain 3750 outright, or a chance of taking it down on the flop. I think your most likely to be up against over cards here, but if you think MP3 is good, I reckon he would make the same move with any pair.

I would push all-in, you only have 10x BB. If you push you have some fold equity, if your called and it is 50-50, you have a few extra chips in the Blinds and courtesy of MP1 giving you favourable pot odds. To make first you have to accumulate fast, before blinds over take you, your already in the money, so aim for first.

[Moonsugar]

I am not sure why you think folding is the worst option. You put the raiser on 99 or a lower pair? Maybe a steal? You say his raise represents some strength but want to do a all in or stop n go with 10 10? I don't think folding should be dismissed out of hand as I think you are a dog to his range of hands here.

I guess the reason you think folding is worst is because of the crushing march of the blinds and you want chips then the question is: do I want to go all in as a probable underdog but a chance to double+ up or do I want to see flop and win 8000 if he has no pair and flop misses him. If you are going to gamble in a dog situation to get more chips you might as well try to get them all: All in.

P. S. If this gamble was to become the big stack at the table (you had ~25000 chips) I would be much more inclined to take the gamble because I think you would have a disproportianate chance to increase your stack bullying/final table chances.

[dmk]

awwwwlllll eeeeen

[Moonsugar]

There are very few players in a Party 20 who will make this play you suspect MP3 of. Not saying he isn't or won't, just saying that would not be my first thought.