UB $120k tourny, hand analysis.

[ekky]

Dear Sharks:

I was wondering if you could spare the time to tell me if you would dump this hand on the turn before or after the action that I took:

Hand #5842661-69 at Sun11pm200-036 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 08/May/05 23:10:08

bmxreed36 is at seat 0 with 5770.
ekky is at seat 1 with 5085.
aronowm2 is at seat 2 with 2325.
hookem148 is at seat 3 with 8525.
eddarsom is at seat 4 with 3220.
360mod is at seat 5 with 3950.
tac60 is at seat 6 with 6695.
Juanmanito is at seat 7 with 1985.
Milesace is at seat 8 with 915.
swtwtr25 is at seat 9 with 1805.
The button is at seat 0.

ekky posts the small blind of 30.
aronowm2 posts the big blind of 60.

bmxreed36: -- --
ekky: Ac As
aronowm2: -- --
hookem148: -- --
eddarsom: -- --
360mod: -- --
tac60: -- --
Juanmanito: -- --
Milesace: -- --
swtwtr25: -- --

Pre-flop:
hookem148 folds.
eddarsom folds.
360mod calls.
tac60 folds.
Juanmanito folds.M
Milesace folds.
swtwtr25 calls.
bmxreed36 folds.
ekky raises to 300
aronowm2 folds.
360mod calls.
swtwtr25calls.


Flop (board: 7d 8c 4s):
ekky checks.
360mod checks.
swtwtr25 checks.

Turn (board: 7d 8c 4s 9d):

ekky bets 425.
360mod calls.
swtwtr25 goes all-in for 1505.
ekky calls.
360mod goes all-in for 3650.
ekky folds. 360mod is returned 2145 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

360mod shows 9c 9s.
swtwtr25 shows 7h 7c.


River (board: 7d 8c 4s 9d Kd):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

360mod has 9c 9s 8c 9d Kd: three nines.
swtwtr25 has 7h 7c 7d 9d Kd: three sevens.


Hand #5842661-69 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
360mod wins 5475 with three nines.
----------------------------------------------------------------

As to my thinking:

360mod had a couple of railbirds come to talk to him/her, so it was probable that this person was adept at the game. His limp from MP therefore was probably something along the lines of medium pair/suited connectors (less likely) or suited paint cards. I felt it was more likely a medium pair then anything else.

swtwtr25 was on a short (ish) stack but their play had not been noticable as good/bad etc, so it was hard to attribute a certain hand to them. I felt it was more likely to be a couple of suited paint cards or Ax suited.

When the flop came down, it was a mixed blessing to say the least. My check was a mis-click, but the fact that BOTH of them checked behind me was probably a sign of strength rather then weakness, given that the flop lends itself more to their range of hands then it does to mine.

The Turn:

I had to bet something here to establish where I was, and 360Mods smooth call got my heckles rite up, I thought "I am done with this hand now".. but then the short stack shifts all in.

I think (well looking at the results I know now) that I should have folded then, given that he was against two other people so his bet was highly unlikely to be a bluff (although as he was short I thought I was getting a reasonable price that he might be moving in on a flush draw/top pair A kicker type of hand)

as soon as I called 360 shoved in and I auto mucked (well.. after a couple of minutes ponderance)

My question to you, is would you have mucked the AA when the shorter stack went all in? or like me waited until the sand-bagger revealed his strength?

kind regards

ekky