Reckless Call?

daveymck · #1 04-26-2005, 05:23 AM

Party $30 10k Guarentee. Blinds are at 1000/2000.

Into the money winding down towards the final table 15 left I am sitting fine on 34k leader is on 50k ish, I can fold and steal my way to be around 5th once the final starts.

Guy on my table has 45k in chips has basically been going all in most hands around 15 out of the last 20, one time he was called was with AA (typically) but I suspect that his standards are not high.

I am on the button with AQo he is under the gun and pushes, the biggest blind is on 12k so even if they call I am still chip for chip mostly against the pusher.

Do you call here? If you win you more than likely go into the final as chip leader.

Nick B. · #2 04-26-2005, 05:28 AM

If he has been pushing that much, I think this should be a call.

2005 · #3 04-26-2005, 06:05 AM

I'd prolly sac it up and call I think. If he's got you beat, he's got you beat, he's pushing too much to fold this from your description. With AK it's an insta-call

Gavin

bugstud · #4 04-26-2005, 06:17 AM

yeah, gamb00000l it up here, because getting chips is good.

Kristian · #5 04-26-2005, 07:58 AM

15 out of 20? Sounds crazy. Call.

Jacob_Gilliam · #6 04-26-2005, 08:09 AM

Should you call? no.
AQo is not that strong a hand to risk knocking yourself out of the tournament for (even a lowly pair of twos is a favorite). Also one of the blinds might wake up and call with something better. Maniac is looking to get himself knocked out and unless you have a very strong hand you dont want to risk getting knocked out as well. (the exception would be if i was in the big blind, then i might consider a call)
(and nobody else was in)

daveymck · #7 04-26-2005, 08:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
15 out of 20? Sounds crazy. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It had been his only move form the bubble and once we got down to two tables that was it all in virtually every hand.

My though process was he could have a random hand but even putting him on a semi sensible range I think its a call.

I figured pocket pairs 66-AA , I'm in really bad shape only against KK/AA, QQ not fun but still have outs. Rest I am coin flipping. Add in Ax probably down to A5/A6 this is the ideal dominating him with three outs to his second card, if he has AK well so be it. Or any two face card KQ,KJ etc etc again good for me but he would be drawing live on the hands he doesnt have a Q in. Th downside being I am getting pretty much evens on my call.

Does my though process and conclusion seem reasonable?

schwza · #8 04-26-2005, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
around 15 out of the last 20

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd bet that if you checked the hand history you'd find it's less than that. but i'd still call.

15/20 means he's pushing all kinds of junk, like A6o, Q7s, etc. you are very likely ~65% to win and maybe 75%. too much of an edge to pass up, even though you'll vomit a little if he has 66.

willie · #9 04-26-2005, 11:24 AM

if he's pushed 15 of his last 20 hands all in, then yes

if that was just an exaggeration for effect then no.

daveymck · #10 04-26-2005, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he's pushed 15 of his last 20 hands all in, then yes

if that was just an exaggeration for effect then no.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was my perception before reviewing the hand history it was 16 out of the last 31 hands. This included a four in a row sequence and a three in a row sequence.

Guess its a lesson in perception and image as well.