I flop a straight, and go for a river...checkraise?

brazilio · #1 04-25-2005, 03:44 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks...

Final Pot: huh

Both villains are TAGs. From the turn action I was 90% sure I was against at least one set, and most likely either two sets or a set and a straight. Two-pair was a possibility too. I was 90% sure that the last actor would bet if checked to because he's a TAG. TAGs like to compulsorily bet. Maybe it was chancy as I'd ended the business on the turn, but other than AQ those boys wouldn't have to worry about anything. I'd been playing super aggressively at the table as it was, had tons of good hands, and a set could have expected me to play two-pair that aggressively. They could put me on, say, AK with a flush draw or two-pair, and I was pretty sure button could value bet that.

gaming_mouse · #2 04-25-2005, 03:50 AM

I like the river c/r, but why did you cap that PF?

brazilio · #3 04-25-2005, 03:52 AM

Should have mentioned resteal ranges were awfully wide against me, I'd been stealing a lot from any MP position. I think it was pretty LAGgy considering BB was in there, probably an error.

Stu Pidasso · #4 04-25-2005, 03:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was 90% sure that the last actor would bet if checked to

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If you are right in your assement, the correct play is to checkraise the river. Checkraising is worth at least 1.8 BBs. Betting out is closer to 1 BB.

Stu

gaming_mouse · #5 04-25-2005, 04:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraising is worth at least 1.8 BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is very conservative IMO. When it works, you are getting at least 2, very likely 3 or 4, and possibly even more. Let's call it 3, to be conservative. If that is working 90% of the time, it's worth 2.7. I think 50%-60% is more realistic than 90% (in general, if not in this case), but even in this case the c/r is better than a bet.

Liam Carver · #6 04-25-2005, 04:29 AM

I think I would bet here. The 3-bet call the button made on the turn is an admission that he is still feeling vulnerable. He might have AK, AJ, maybe two pair or high card spades, possibly a set, but none of those hands are really super-strong on this flop - especially considering your pre-flop raising can put you on an AQs in some people's minds. I think although your river check is likely to confuse him, if he is a decent player he might be anticipating a river CR, and if he is a a crappy player he might fear getting his set throttled by a straight. He might also put you on KK for a set higher than his Jacks?. I would bet out and watch him pay me one more bet.

Liam

Liam Carver · #7 04-25-2005, 04:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If that is working 90% of the time, it's worth 2.7. I think 50%-60% is more realistic than 90% (in general, if not in this case)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this...90% sure of a bet when checked to after you have finished the betting on the turn is pretty optimistic. I am very rarely that sure under these particular circumstances.

Liam

ThePenguin · #8 04-25-2005, 05:27 AM

I don't see how you can be 90% sure of a river bet after you finished the action on the turn.

brazilio · #9 04-25-2005, 05:38 AM

TAGs compulsorily value bet. My estimation of his betting might be high, but it's not that high. Hell, just like a day ago somebody posted a hand where there was an odd check on the river, and it was probably 70% in favor of a river bet. I may be off, but not by much.

Jules22 · #10 04-25-2005, 05:58 AM

seems like a good line, but very very player dependant imo, because this getting checked through is a DISASTER.