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#1
04-26-2005, 09:23 AM
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Short short handed session, hand #1
5-10 online 5 handed. My first hand of the session in the BB w/ 1k. I've been watching the table for about 10 minutes, so have a small read on all players.
loose UTG limps, MP ($800) raises to $60, button folds, sb folds, I have 9cTc and call the $50, UTG folds. I made the call for 2 reasons. 1) MP seemed very weak tight when I watched him earlier. Only bets with the goods and was folding a lot. 2) I just got back from the bleachers at a cubs game and had about 5 beers in me and felt like gamboooooling... Flop came Qc6s3s. I check, he checks. Ok, he missed an AK or is slowplaying QQ or has JJ/TT. Turn is Js. I bet $100, he raises to $280 (so $180 back to me, and he has $460 left) What's my play (and plan for the river if I continue with the hand)? This bet is not a semibluff in my mind... 
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#3
04-26-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: Short short handed session, hand #1
Well, if he has AK, I want to win the pot right here, right? Or if he'll fold a lower pair - I'm still a dog, so want the pot. If I was in position, then yes, I probably check behind - but I had right to first bluff, so may as well use it.
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#4
04-26-2005, 03:13 PM
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Revised post as a math question
ok - this hand isn't as interesting as I thought - but let me pose it as a math question...
Lets assume I know this guy has QQ/JJ. I want to see how decent a call here on the turn is. My plan, being that he has weak-tight tendancies, is that if I call, I will push any spade that doesn't pair the board (including the ones that make me my straight), I will push when I hit my straight regardless, and I will check fold on any other card. Lets also assume that he will call any push from a non-spade card, and that he has some probability "p" of folding when a spade hits. What does this "p" have to be for the call to be profitable on the turn given these assumptions?
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#5
04-26-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Short short handed session, hand #1
The issue is that, given the action, he is probably not folding. AK doesn't play like this. A low pp doesn't play like this. He isn't playing weak-tight so far, so I think you are done with the hand.
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#7
04-26-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: Revised post as a math question
right, but what if you'll push any spade? With implied odds, you're getting ~5.4:1, which is plenty for the call without any bluffing equity (although he may not call a bet when the 2 spades that complete your straight hit - in which case this is almost a breakeven situation).
So lets say that pushing any spade will increase your EV, what percentage of time must he fold for this to be true?
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