3 Weeks of 400NL and concerened

[JimmyJazz1]

After 3 weeks of 400NL i've had mixed results and am basically dead even. A couple days ago I was up about 4 buyins and the next day up another 3, but lost 6 in the next 2 sessions. It seems that every time I gain a little momentum, I lose it the next session. I think I'm getting some cold cards and am having some bad luck, but its been 11k hands so i'm a little concerened that my play is not optimal.

Here are the main PT stats (by the way I combined PL and NL):

VPIP:23.19
VPIP from SB: 31.33
Folded SB to Steal:88.82
Folded BB To steal: 75.93
Att. To Steal Blinds: 17.92
Won WSF%: 32.64
Went To SD: 19.43
Won $ at SD: 50.91
PF Raise: 7.77

Hands that are losing the most money:AQo, won 54%, 99 Won 49%, AJo won 46%, AKo won 72%, ATo won 34%

Any feedback would be great.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP:23.19
VPIP from SB: 31.33
Folded SB to Steal:88.82
Folded BB To steal: 75.93
Att. To Steal Blinds: 17.92
Won WSF%: 32.64
Went To SD: 19.43
Won $ at SD: 50.91
PF Raise: 7.77


[/ QUOTE ]
Numbers look pretty good, but your Won $ at SD should be a little higher, probably around 55-58%.


[ QUOTE ]
Hands that are losing the most money:AQo, won 54%, 99 Won 49%, AJo won 46%, AKo won 72%, ATo won 34%


[/ QUOTE ]
A-x offsuit can turn out to be bleeding hands. Took me a while to figure that one out. Unless you're in position against 1-2 opponents, I would consider folding dominated hands (like AJo/ATo) more regularly btf, particularly behind any kind of raise. A-x suited, however, tends to do a lot better.

And that 99 should get better over time...be sure to compare it to your stats for other mid pocket pairs, like TT/88/77. They should all be in the black. If you happened to lose one or two BIG hands with 99, perhaps that could account for why you have that pocket pair listed as your #2 losing hand.

[JimmyJazz1]

Thanks for the reply. When you say W$ at SD should be higher, do you think i'm folding the winner too often or i'm running cold?

[DaveduFresne]

I don't know maybe its just me, but I think a lot of you internet players out there are getting too caught up with your pokertracker stats.

I'm not gonna come on here and act like I'm the best player ever or anything cause I'm still a smalltimer and have a lot to learn. However what I will say is that I turned from a player who was literally hemorraging (sp?) cash to one who makes a decent living without ever consulting such stats. And I know Doyle and Stu Ungar and a lot of greats (no I'm not comparing myself with them) never used such stats for their game.

But I just think poker is more about feel than about cold mathematics, especially NL poker. I can usually tell at the end of a hand whether I made the right or the wrong play, and I don't mean just by the results. (I can think of a hand earlier tonight where I won the showdown but made the wrong decision because my read was off and just got lucky for example.)

Either my read was right or it wasn't. If my bluff was called down, well I have to reevaluate who I was bluffing.

And some situations where you lose are just obviously due to bad luck. Disregarding some rare scenario where me and another player both have 20 times the buy in at the table, I am not folding middle set on a rainbow, unconnected flop, not ever. If he has top set good for him, I just got unlucky.

If you are a multitabler at a lower limit, you probably want to start off with only one table at the higher limit. Then you should be able to take the time to evaluate why you are losing some of the hands you're losing.

Also, consider that if you're at a limit that's new to you, the players are also probably new to you. This puts you at a significant disadvantage against the regulars of that limit. Yes you can get preliminary reads within the first hour or two, but I find it can take me several weeks before I can really have a strong read on some players.

Lastly, if losing the full buy in at the limit in one hand elicits much more than a slight sigh of frustration, you probably shouldn't be playing that limit. It is just too easy to lose a few buy ins no matter how good you are. If losing one or two greatly upsets you, you're probably off of your game. Go lower and rebuild your confidence.

Good luck,

David

[JimmyJazz1]

Thanks David, although I disagree with you on your point on "internet players getting too caught up with poker tracker stats." Poker tracker is an excellent way to analyze your game and a good way to compare gameplay with other players. I believe posting hands is the best way to get accurate feedback on ones play, I myself have posted many hands but I feel that posting my stats will let me see if I have major leaks that people can point out.

I am still adjusting to the limit, and at times it can be difficult to lose 400 whole dollars in one hand, but I do not think that has subtracted from my play quality. If I find my play deteriating in the least, I take a day or two off to anlyize my play/read 2plus2/ do things other than poker.

I think my cold streak is due to a good amount of bad luck, and running into situations where my big hands are not getting paid off and I am paying off others with 2nd best. However, I wanted to make sure that my stats were up to par and I'm playing similarly to others succesful at 400NL. I also want a confidence boost [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[DaveduFresne]

Don't mistake my statement about stats to include hand histories. I think hand histories are a wonderful way to analyze your play, even though this is still incomplete information.

As for the stats, an example of why I say this is there are some hands I occasionally play and raise with purely for advertising purposes, which enable me to get paid off a lot better on my strong hands than a tight player would. I am sure pokertracker would reveal these hands to be money losers for me, but the reality is they may be money winners, just not in the conventional way of thinking.

That said, I'm not going to come on here and tell people to give up Pokertracker. Used properly, I am sure it can give you some good reads on your play. I am just saying I think it may not be good to get too caught up with stats as opposed to more traditional methods of analyzing your play.

As to the last part of your post, if you are getting stale, definitely take a break. Even if you think you might be, take some time off. I say this especially if you are a recreational player, but even if you need the money for income.

Every day you play burnt out poker is at best reducing your EV, at worst making it negative.

Take a few days off and see if you still want to play those stakes, and go from there would be my recommendation.

Good Luck,

David

[emil3000]

When you list you top losing hands it includes some of the classic trouble hands in NL: AQo, AJo, ATo. How have you been playing these hands?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]


Hands that are losing the most money:AQo, won 54%, 99 Won 49%, AJo won 46%, AKo won 72%, ATo won 34%

Any feedback would be great.

[/ QUOTE ]

Post some hand histories, Jimmy.

As for the hands you mention: don't play raised pots with AQo, AJo, and ATo. (Well, unless you're the one raising AQo, but you have to be careful with it.)

Don't reraise with AKo unless you're real sure about your opponent. Don't back AK/one pair with your stack unless you're real sure about your opponent. Don't take one off with AK/no pair when another guy is betting the pot or raising you.

[soah]

Try playing a bit tighter. When you move up in stakes or play in a tougher game, you may find that situations that used to be marginally profitable for you are now losers for you until you make the proper adjustments. It might be that your opponents do a better job of extracting value from you, or that they'll pay you off less frequently... or maybe you're just not used to the stakes and it affects your decisions in marginal situations. I'm not sure what a typical VP$IP for full-ring should be, but 23 looks too high to me (it's higher than my VP$IP for six-max, although I'll admit I am very tight). There's certainly plenty of room to trim that down, and once you're confident that you're a winner at these stakes then you can always start to add in more situations to play.

[iceman5]

When he says your $WSD shoudl be higher, he doesnt mean you are folding the winner too often. He means the opposite.

You are going to showdown to often with the loser.

My $wSD is 60.5%