should I call the river if he bets? Ad7d

DMBFan23 · #1 04-19-2005, 03:22 PM

sup y'all,

the preflop limper is a very loose and passive player. the preflop 3 bettor is a TAG by stats, but I have no read on him postflop. 7-10% PFR.

on the river, hero ______ with the intention of ______?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6.66 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero...?

einbert · #2 04-19-2005, 03:26 PM

I think betting and folding to a raise has some merit, as you may get paid off by the LP with a worse hand. BUT there just aren't many worse hands he can have to pay you off with, and a decent TAG isn't paying you off with anything worse here.

If he bets though, you're toast. He's not betting ace high into two players, if he bets the river I suspect he has A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I would check and fold to a bet.

27offsooot · #3 04-19-2005, 03:27 PM

checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

einbert · #4 04-19-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands does a TAG player bet into two players on this board that we beat?

Jack Bauer · #5 04-19-2005, 03:33 PM

bet the river because you probably have the best hand and AK might call, but won't bet. MP1 has absolutely nothing

DMBFan23 · #6 04-19-2005, 03:34 PM

I agree that MP1's presence makes this a must fold if he bets. HU I think I have to call, but he ain't betting unless he wants to get a call from MP1.

anyways, he had Ac Qs and checked behind

DMBFan23 · #7 04-19-2005, 03:35 PM

doesnt the presence of MP1 make AK a little less likely to call?

27offsooot · #8 04-19-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands does a TAG player bet into two players on this board that we beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Overcards. I think based on his turn check, it is pretty obvious he has just overcards. Whether or not he has AKc/ AQc or just offsuit ones, u don't know. If he wants to bluff at the scare card on the river, given the passivity of MP1 and DMB, then let him. He will pretty much never call with a worse hand, so I don't see how betting has any value. Also, checking allows u to see how MP1 reacts. I think if MP1 folds, u should call, given that i think there is greater than 15% or whatever that he's bluffing at the river. If MP1 is decent and calls, then u have a fold.

I think that we assume GOOD TAGs will rarely if ever bluff at this river, but I think that someone can still have TAG statistics and take a shot here. If nothing else, this will give u a post-flop read.

admiralfluff · #9 04-19-2005, 03:48 PM

I think this is a pretty good spot for bet/fold. He's probably on check/fold, but you might get paid off by AK, and MP1 could pay you off with anything.

Does anyone else fold the flop?

einbert · #10 04-19-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought about it for a second but then realized we are getting 12.3-1 closing the action with almost certainly three good outs. And MP1 is going to pay us off with a huge range of hands if we hit, and button probably will too if he has an overpair.