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#1
04-15-2005, 10:53 PM
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Rolled up 9s
4/8 7 Card Stud High
A 3 up brings in for $2, a J up completes to $4. I have rolled up 999. I smooth call. All others fold out. One ace, one king, rags up. No 9s or Js dead. On fourth he pairs his J. I catch a baby. He bets... -blumpkin 
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#3
04-15-2005, 11:53 PM
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Re: Rolled up 9s
There is a pretty good chance he has a big pocket pair, and probably some chance that he has some other hand like a three-flush or QJT. And if he does have trip Jacks, you can always suck out. I think you see the river here.
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#4
04-16-2005, 10:18 AM
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Re: Rolled up 9s
Unless this player is very tight you probably have to run with it. Even if he does have trips, you win around a quarter of the time. This is a lot better than when you have one pair, at which point if he does have it you are drawing nearly dead.
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#5
04-16-2005, 03:34 PM
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Re: Rolled up 9s
Yes, I realize that I win 25% of the time when he has trip jacks and win around 75-80% if he has two big pairs or 3 to a straight flush and a pair. So doesn't this mean that continuing is correct precisely when I believe it is more than 50% likely he does not have three jacks?
-blumpkin
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#6
04-16-2005, 07:06 PM
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Re: Rolled up 9s
[ QUOTE ]
So doesn't this mean that continuing is correct precisely when I believe it is more than 50% likely he does not have three jacks? -blumpkin [/ QUOTE ]there is dead money in the pot... as for the hand, id get ready to do alot of calling. raise if you catch the case 9...
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#7
04-16-2005, 10:02 PM
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Re: Rolled up 9s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So doesn't this mean that continuing is correct precisely when I believe it is more than 50% likely he does not have three jacks? -blumpkin [/ QUOTE ]there is dead money in the pot... as for the hand, id get ready to do alot of calling. raise if you catch the case 9... [/ QUOTE ] Yes, there is dead money in the pot, but not that much. I definitely have to be "right" (i.e., he doesn't yet have trips) at least 60% of the time for this to be profitable. This being said, Andy's preceding comments have convinced me that this is in fact the case, and seeing the river is correct. -blumpkin
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#8
04-17-2005, 12:42 AM
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Hello,Plumpkin! Did U size up your Oppo.?...
Is he seeing many 3rd Str. hands? Is he folding many hands? Does he play small/medium pocket Prs with high over card aggressively--completing the hands in this format? Or does he usually limp in with small/medium Pr. big card showing?
U need to be able to try to understand your Oppo's habits on 3rd and 4th. Only after answering these questions will u have a good idea of whether or not to continue or fold. HappyPokering, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] SittingBull
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