MLB 4/15

Buck_65 · #1 04-14-2005, 11:35 PM

I hope you've all done your taxes.

My plays are as follows:
Minnesota (Santana) -149 at Cleveland (Westbrook)
Houston (Oswalt) -108 at Cincinnati (Wilson)
Chicago (Zambrano) -130 at Pittsburgh (Perez)
Oakland (Zito) even vs Los Angeles (Colon)

Note: Some of these lines have already moved, but there still appears to be some value.

I especially like the Houston bet. Thoughts?

Edit: Pinnacle has Houston at -104 currently, which isn't likely to last.

null · #2 04-15-2005, 02:49 AM

Well I don't have much to add, I like the Cubs too. I'm considering betting on the Twins and Oakland (the Oakland line may move to +more I think). Thanks for posting about Houston, I hadn't looked at that game. I checked out some lines for the game and found a scalp. I just bet it hard but if it sticks around I'll let you know.

null · #3 04-15-2005, 02:53 AM

Well it's still around but barely worth it. Houston -102 at pinnacle and Cinncinnati +103 at bowmans (was +105).

Buck_65 · #4 04-15-2005, 02:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well it's still around but barely worth it. Houston -102 at pinnacle and Cinncinnati +103 at bowmans (was +105).

[/ QUOTE ]

Pinnacle offers some incredible lines from time to time...Unfortunately, I don't want anything to do with their $15 withdrawal fee and can't take advantage of the better odds. If my unit amount were higher, this would be a different story. I (and I'm sure others) do appreciate your update on the Houston/Cincy line. Thanks.

DougOzzzz · #5 04-15-2005, 07:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well it's still around but barely worth it. Houston -102 at pinnacle and Cinncinnati +103 at bowmans (was +105).

[/ QUOTE ]

Pinnacle offers some incredible lines from time to time...Unfortunately, I don't want anything to do with their $15 withdrawal fee and can't take advantage of the better odds. If my unit amount were higher, this would be a different story. I (and I'm sure others) do appreciate your update on the Houston/Cincy line. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

They do offer 1 free withdrawal per month of $500+. I'm not sure if anything prevents people who want to take out less than that from depositing 500-X, and then withdrawing 500.

DougOzzzz · #6 04-15-2005, 08:09 AM

I'm not crazy about playing road favorites.

I do like the Oakland game, and I'm adding NYM +145 at home vs. Florida (Beckett). Mismatch pitching-wise, but I think Beckett may be overrated due to the hot start, and Mets are home.

Also went with Milwaukee (Sheets) -109 vs. St. Louis (Suppan). Not sure I feel too good about this one... but they're home, and Sheets is pitching.

Thinking about Baltimore +124 vs. NYY (Pavano). Probably will lay off it though.

I usually stay away from over-unders, but I think TB(Nomo) at Boston(Wells) over 10 (-101) looks good. I can easily see both these guys getting shelled.

VinnyTheFish · #7 04-15-2005, 09:43 AM

Nothing really looks good to me today. All the games are in game #1 of the series. There are a few series that will be watching, but like I said, I try not to bet on the
weekend.

Tampa is a nice number, anywhere from +155 to +167. That is a worthy price, but if they lose, I do not know if I could go with them again on Saturday and/or Sunday.

Today, I will take the day off, (* unless MarkL444 posts a few picks *). Where ya been buddy?

Series that I will be charting:
** St. Louis at Milwaukee
** San Diego at Los Angeles
** Minnesota at Cleveland
** NY Yankees at Baltimore
** LA Angels at Oakland

YTD: 13-12 (+102)
System: 4-4 (-90)

Paluka · #8 04-15-2005, 10:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing really looks good to me today. All the games are in game #1 of the series. There are a few series that will be watching, but like I said, I try not to bet on the
weekend.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you avoid betting on the weekend?

Buck_65 · #9 04-15-2005, 11:27 AM

Means a lot less in baseball than it does in other sports. Clearly, being at home is valuable to some extent, but I think it's being overrated in this sport.

DougOzzzz · #10 04-15-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Means a lot less in baseball than it does in other sports. Clearly, being at home is valuable to some extent, but I think it's being overrated in this sport.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that if you look up the percentages you'll find that the home advantage is smaller in baseball than in say, basketball, or football. College basketball seems to be the extreme case. But it's still fairly significant. I think the actual number is between 54% and 55%.

So in other words, when 2 equal teams meet, the break even point for the home team is around -120. So going from home to road is a difference of about 40 points in that case.