Betting in NLHE: factors, objectives., limitations.

[FiveAngels]

Having read considerable information on betting in NLHE, 3 weeks ago, I saw something here in a thread while I was searching for something else. Now I can't find it & while Im not totally sure what the concept was, I do recall that I had never seen it writen before.

I thought I read here that you can't make a bet that is larger than your current equity in the pot....is this true, & if it is could someone explain? For example, if you flop TPTK and you are sure your opponent has made mid pair, and there are no straights/flushes possible, you are approx a 4:1 fav, so your pot equity is approx 80%. If the pot is $100 (your eq is obviously $80) & lets say you're first to act playing head up....if you choose to lead out with a bet, first, is it true that you cant bet more than your equity $80?

Well not to get stuck on a single idea I have listed below two questions concerning these general mathematical principles.

1) What factors does a professional or serious player use to mathematically deterine the ammount of a bet in situations like the above. (I can reason as far as betting an ammount that makes calling/drawing for him/her incorrect, and hope that they do infact call....don't know if this is right or wrong, & reardless is this the only math concept?)

2)Are there limitations to 'good' bets, as opposed to amature bets (the ole $2000 Allin to win $60)...i.e I understand that betting to little gives your opponent correct odds to call, but is there such a thing as betting too much.

It's really the second question that I am most interested in, as it would be a good tool to prevent overplaying a hand. As of right now I have never read anything mathematical about a favored hand having a limit to it's value, but I would assume otherwise. I appreciate any info related to this subject.

Thank you.

[Iceman]

"I thought I read here that you can't make a bet that is larger than your current equity in the pot....is this true, & if it is could someone explain?"

That's not true at all. I think what the quote refers to is that when you're deciding to call an bet heads-up that will either put you or your opponent all-in (so there is no chance of any further betting in the hand), then you decide whether to call based on your equity in the pot, or what you estimate that equity as being. If the pot is $1000, your opponent bets $500 all-in, and you have $800 left, then whether you call that $500 into a pot that will contain $2000 after your call depends on whether you think you have at least a $500/$2000 = 25% chance of winning. If he might have any of a few different hands, then think of how likely each of those hands are, and how well you do against each one of them.

"What factors does a professional or serious player use to mathematically deterine the ammount of a bet in situations like the above."

It's normally correct to bet the pot in 90% of situations, whether you have a monster hand and you want action, a pretty good hand and you want to protect it, an okay hand and you want to get everyone out, or a bluff and you just want to steal the pot. If you vary your bets based on whether you want people to call or fold, your opponents will catch on to it and take advantage of that. In holdem, drawing hands almost never have odds to call a pot bet, especially if there's no chance of getting their outs paid off, so you don't usually need to massively overbet the pot to protect your hand and doing that only increases your risk if your opponent does have one of the rare hands that beats you. (By contrast, drawing hands in Omaha high often have odds to call a pot bet.)

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
It's normally correct to bet the pot in 90% of situations, whether you have a monster hand and you want action, a pretty good hand and you want to protect it, an okay hand and you want to get everyone out, or a bluff and you just want to steal the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is simply not true.

Betting the whole pot all of the time would be viewed as overly aggressive. In many situations, you don't need to bet that much to protect your hand, but if you regularly bet the pot, you will pay far too much when people slow-play monsters, or hit a nonobvious concealed draw.

If you read the SSNL forum, you will often see the advice to bet the pot postflop, and to overbet the pot preflop. That is because the opponents are horrible, and will pay off huge amounts with inferior hands. In the Mid-, High-Stakes PL/NL forum, you can see that more advanced players usually don't bet the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
If you vary your bets based on whether you want people to call or fold, your opponents will catch on to it and take advantage of that.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is an argument for never raising preflop, too. As is discussed in Harrington on Hold'em, it is a useful tool to be able to vary your bet sizes.

[ QUOTE ]
In holdem, drawing hands almost never have odds to call a pot bet, especially if there's no chance of getting their outs paid off, so you don't usually need to massively overbet the pot to protect your hand and doing that only increases your risk if your opponent does have one of the rare hands that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]
In fact, drawing hands often have the implied odds they need to call a pot-sized bet.

[FiveAngels]

pzhon if I may ask to get a little more detail, because several months ago I begain to stop betting the pot in NLHE all of the time in favor of fluxuating from 1/3 up to 3/4, rarely going above and almost never betting the full pot: The largest reasons for the change honestly was almost exactly what you said...realizing that I achieve the same results for a lesser price then the full pot, my bluffs when picked off had far less impact on my bankroll, while I could better control the hand/my game by controling the pot size more effectively...in addition, I am better able to concel the draws that I'm betting when the pot is multiway and I'm looking to pickup a pot equity edge. But the problem is that, outside of that draw bet and a probe bet, the ammounts I select are made more on feel than on detailed understanding, and this is what I'm trying to change if in fact that a more detailed understanding does exist. So my question to you, if I may, is this...let's say in a hand where you get it heads up, after flopping TPTK with no flush/straight possibilities, (TPTK, of course,still could be outdrawn in head up), after your opponent, who rarely check-raises, checks to u figure that he/she has mid pair at best, putting you in the drivers seat as approx 4:1 fav w/2 streets to come. Being aware of all of this, is a good poker player going to now make a bet that offers the opponent 2.5 or 3:1, in the hopes that he/she will call, with a 4:1 odds hand? And what I untimately mean is that is playing good poker, include ALWAYS thinking along these lines when making bets into a pot i.e. always trying to make bets that offer opponents unfavorable odds? Versus myself who has been making good 'ballpark' bets that were based on feel rather than calculation? Again, it's not enough anymore for me just to do, I need to know why so I can break through to the next level of game. Thanks

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
let's say in a hand where you get it heads up, after flopping TPTK with no flush/straight possibilities, (TPTK, of course,still could be outdrawn in head up), after your opponent, who rarely check-raises, checks to u figure that he/she has mid pair at best, putting you in the drivers seat as approx 4:1 fav w/2 streets to come. Being aware of all of this, is a good poker player going to now make a bet that offers the opponent 2.5 or 3:1, in the hopes that he/she will call, with a 4:1 odds hand? And what I untimately mean is that is playing good poker, include ALWAYS thinking along these lines when making bets into a pot i.e. always trying to make bets that offer opponents unfavorable odds?

[/ QUOTE ]
On a dry board (few draws possible), I usually bet something like 1/2-2/3 of the pot. However, I can't justify the exact amount theoretically yet.

The amount you bet is not closely tied to the odds your opponent will win. After all, you will often make a continuation bet with a weaker hand. Your opponent expects some return from the times he is ahead.

You should to put your opponent on a range of hands, and think about how good the bet amount is for those hands. If your opponent completely missed, betting will pick up the pot, but you might make more if you check behind and hope your opponent catches up. (With AA UTG versus a blind, I checked behind on an AKxr flop. The turn was a J, and all of the money went in. My opponent had JJ.) If your opponent has a mediocre hand, betting more may simply win more money. If your opponent is slow-playing a monster, betting more means you lose more, but you might pick up enough information to slow down on the turn.

[elmitchbo]

i agree that a pot sized bet is not the universal answer. i tend to be a 3/4 pot kind of guy. the size of your bet will vary greatly depending on the situation. i rarely bet less than 1/2 the pot post flop. that's my standard continuation bet, if i've shown aggression preflop and like the texture of the flop(ala HOH). betting half the pot assures that any drawing hand doesn't have explicit odds to call. if you bet less than half the pot you can expect alot of calls from a lot of hands.

to respond directly to the OP... i think the ideal strategy is to bet(risk) as little as possible to maximize your return. as you noted, it's foolish to push $2000 allin to win $60. why? the risk is to great for the return. that's an extreme example, but the idea applies to other bets. somewhere in the range of 1/2, 2/3, 3/4 the pot is pretty good.

last thought.... sometimes you should over bet the pot allin if you know you're going to need to call a raise anyway. it's better to be aggressive early, rather than call later.

[JC_Saves]

(blind response)

I would say that is absolutely not correct. It depends on the table and how loose/passive it is, your position, your table image, ie have you been having your way with the table and someone is ready to play back at you if you bet the pot. Do you have a lot of people that will call pot bets? how many people are in the pot? Was the pot raised pre flop? Has it been raised in front of you on the flop. All of these are factors that go into how much you are going to be.

In NLHE there will be many, many times when you bet more than your pot equity.

If your hand is vulnerable you would always like to make drawing hands pay to draw out, giving incorrect pot odds for them to call. Many times the better players will give up, while calling stations will continue on no matter what their odds are. These are the people you make your money off of. Yes, they may hit, but they will miss way more than they hit and that's when you clean up.

There is absolutely something to overbetting. What message are you sending to your opponent? If you had a very strong hand would you go all in to scare him off? or would you rather bet 1/3 to 1/2 the pot in hopes that he calls and gives you some action? When you have the nuts wouldn't you rather bet something that will be so attractive that they can't fold, I would. It is great when someone says, nice bet, you kept it just low enough to where I stayed interested and could keep playing. When you have AA and go all in and everyone folds and you win the blinds it is a very hollow feeling, and that is why you should raise an amount that will chase out poor hands, but give good hands a chance to call and make a mistake. I was in a hand one time and had mid pair with top kicker and it was late and I went all in for like 1500 to win 400 and I was called. I asked him why did you call after seeing his top pair average kicker? His answer was, why would you go all in unless you didn't want me to call?

There is a time for all-in betting. Most of the time it is not all in time. One of these times would be when you have less than 8BB and don't have enough of a stack to do much with it other than all-in or fold, and when you have the nuts and someone is calling ever increasing bets on flop, turn and you get them pot committed because they put most of their stack in the pot arleady.

if you were the aggressor pre-flop, then you might bet 1/2 to 3/4 of the pot (if the pot is huge then you can go down to !/3 the pot) as a "continuation bet" on the flop to see where you are at in the hand. You need to define your hand sometimes and in order to do that you have to bet an amount that will tell you something about your opponents, if not win it right then.

If someone else was the aggressor preflop, and they check to you, or you act before them, if the flop give you a nice hand you might do a "probing bet" of about 1/3 the pot to see where you stand.

there are reasons to raise with a hand:
1. because you have a high EV pre flop, ie. AA, AK etc.
2. to define your hand
3. to take down the pot right then without a showdown because you have a marginal hand but the flop is ragged and might have missed everyone else, or you have position and everyone checks to you not showing any strength.
4. on the button or CO to steal blinds. just as examples.

You want to very your betting amounts and don't just raise with the nuts, because people will pick up on that and won't give you any action when you have a great hand and want callers. It is a game of cat and mouse. You have 55 and the flop is 55K, it would be foolish to bet this flop or go all-in. You want someone to bet it for you and then just call and hope that someone picks up a great hand. if it gets checked down to the river then I would bet something that will be to tantalizing for them to not call. Just remember you want people to call when you have the nuts, give them hope to hit their "second best" hand. Your goal is to get them pot committed when you have the nuts so they will put all their money in the pot. Don't scare away the fishes.

When you have TPTK and there is a two flush or str8t draw on the board you have to "protect" your hand by betting or raising to isolate your opponent or win it out right. You have to risk money to win money sometimes. If you bet an amount that is a significant portion of their stack they might decide to fold rather than risk it. This is called fold equity (FE). You should do a search for that topic. It will help you and show you how big bets can work for you.

Good luck. Sorry it is so long. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]