When you are almost sure. is it enough ?

someguy123 · #1 04-13-2005, 12:24 AM

First post as you see so take it easy with me.

CO is the tightest player at the table, Solid and havea good read from what i can tell. when having a hand CO will not slowplay it. Villian have a VPIP of 15%.

I think my image is TAG, but i have been mixing it up. so you never know.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button ($2697.14)
SB ($709)
BB ($388.5)
UTG ($1087.5)
Hero ($1574)
CO ($1321.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $40, Button calls $40, 2 folds.

Flop: ($135) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $120, CO calls $120, Button folds.

Turn: ($375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $250, CO calls $250.

River: ($875) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

Final Pot: ???

When villian only calls down like this i really have a strong feeling that CO have AK. I might imagine villian would play AQ diffrently plus that i think Villian would respect my turn bet and maybe lay it down. Cause against player that know the game CO plays abit cautiously.

I cant see that there is any chance of Villian having AT, maybe a slight chance that villian holds a set, impoving to an FH or quads.

What should i do on the river ?

All my guts tells me too go allin or bet a big ammount and avoid a split, bad move ?

Im editing this cause it didnt seem enough to me, i am fairly ssure that with a big bet or an allin which is like a big bet cause thats what villian have left. I cant expect to get a call by anthing i beat.

I can see 3 options:

1. So what should be my line Check calling to not risking too much money.
2. bet big to avoid split
3. bet small to get paid off, if villian have AQ or AJ

Laomedon · #2 04-13-2005, 01:17 AM

I don't play this high, but FWIW if you consider the villain "the tightest player at the table" then do you really think he would take this line with AQ or AJ?

someguy123 · #3 04-13-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I might imagine villian would play AQ diffrently plus that i think Villian would respect my turn bet and maybe lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ] I know this sounds abit weak. although i Cant say what villian would do with AQs cause i have never seen him playing that particular hand. I just know what my feeling is and thats AK, what i wanna know if what move would make the most money.

someguy123 · #4 04-13-2005, 07:53 AM

Is none up now ? or is the post simply bad ? if it is i wouldnt mind somoene to post a reply why. ty.

gomberg · #5 04-13-2005, 09:32 AM

I'd say at best you're splitting if he's that tight. He's probably playing cautiously in case you have AA. I'd put him on a lower set... If you want to see a cheap showdown, put out a small blocking bet. If you think he could have AQ here, then the small bet is still good as he'll probably fold to a larger one.

Laomedon · #6 04-13-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say at best you're splitting if he's that tight. He's probably playing cautiously in case you have AA. I'd put him on a lower set... If you want to see a cheap showdown, put out a small blocking bet. If you think he could have AQ here, then the small bet is still good as he'll probably fold to a larger one.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand interests me as I consider this is particularly difficult situation.

I can't think of a better line to take through the turn than the one that the OP took. It seems like most reasonable players fold to that flop bet unless they have caught something worthwhile. The Villain's line suggests either a poorly/strangely played AK, AQ, or AJ (which I suppose can be ruled out given the OP's indicated read of tightness) or a set. Would any of you NL1000 regulars flat-call the flop and the turn with AK (or for that matter AQ ehhhhh)? I think a reasonable player would raise for information, right?

As the villain, I could see myself flat-calling with 77 or 1010 on this flop to set-up a move on either the turn or the river. I suppose Villain might be playing a lower set cautiously if he's super passive and therefore afraid of AA, but OP didn't indicate Villain as being weak necessarily.

If OP puts out a blocking bet on the river, naturally he folds to any reasonable raise? OP certainly cannot check this river without assuredly facing a sizeable bet from the Villain right?

I just don't see the Villain holding anything less then a set here, this seems like an entirely read dependent situation. Since OP's read was "the tightest player at the table," I guess I would throw out a $350-450 bet on that river and hope for a split pot/poorly played lower ace to call, but I'll be prepared to run home with my tail between my legs to an all-in raise. This hand is perfect illustration of the importance of position in hold 'em. You have no information whatsoever on Villain's holding, I just cannot believe (taking into consideration OP's read) that Villain called two sizeable bets with something AK can beat.

This hand just bothers me, I'd really like to hear some insight from experienced big bet players.

Rococo · #7 04-13-2005, 12:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would any of you NL1000 regulars flat-call the flop and the turn with AK (or for that matter AQ ehhhhh)? I think a reasonable player would raise for information, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising "for information" is expensive and grossly overrated. If I am the Villain and I choose to raise the flop, it will be because I put hero on a draw or I believe that he will call with a worse K. Raising the flop and then autofolding the turn if Hero calls the flop seems like a great way to lose money with AK.

someguy123 · #8 04-13-2005, 12:27 PM

Ok, i appreciate the answers. I too didnt see how i could be ahead. But i still cant see villian not reraising aces preflop. TT and 77 could be possible fearing aces. I can get villian to laydown Ak but then i must risk most of my Buyin. Is it worth it ?

If anyone can think that villian have another hand plz post.

gomberg · #9 04-13-2005, 12:59 PM

OK, well if you want to play this game, hero can only reasonably have 4 hands here:

AK for a split
AhQh would make sense as well which you beat
TT for quads
77 for a boat you lose to.

6 holdings you split
1 you beat
4 you lose

So you have about a pot size bet left. Should you risk it? How certain are you that he'll fold AK to a big bet here? Lets say he folds 50% of the time w/ AK and always with AQh. and calls with the other two holdings.

EV with the pot sized bet =
4/11 gets the pot, 3/11 you split, and 4/11 you lose =
(4 + 1.5 - 4)/11 = 1.5/11 = .14 pots EV

If you check it down and he checks behind (not reasonable assumption), then your ev is 0 (6 splits, 1 win, 4 losses).

If you put out a blocker of 1/2 pot where he calls with splits and the one hand you beat and the 4 you lose to, then your ev is +2.5 pots (6 splits for 3 pots, 1 win for 1.5 pots, 4 losses for 2 pots).

by this simple, terrible assumption arithmetic, the blocking bet is better than pushing. Of course, if you think he'll always fold w/ AK, then it's slightly better to push - but that's a very unlikely assumption as well.

9cao · #10 04-13-2005, 12:59 PM

Tough spot. AK sounds probable, AQs not likely given your read of Villain. Good chance he has 77 and figures you will call his push with TT or AA and fold AK or worse so not getting aggressive. I think you need to trust your instinct and either push all-in or check/fold, either way it sucks.