Sklansky Carlson chart

[jacki]

It's an NL tourney chart.
Can somebody translate this for me?

Sklansky Carlson chart

[Spladle Master]

Heads-up NL Hold 'em. You are dealt two cards face-up. Your opponent is dealt two cards face-down. You move all-in. The column titled "N_Call" gives the total number of card combinations that your opponent will call with (assuming that he will call every time that he is a favorite and fold otherwise). "N_Fold" is the total number of card combinations that your opponent will fold (he will always fold a hand that is a dog to yours). "P_Call" is the probability that your hand will win the showdown when it is called. "Max Stack for EV > 0" is pretty self-explanatory. It's the number of big blinds you can move into the pot and still expect to show a profit (assuming that your EV is 1.5 big blinds every time he folds, I think).

[daryn]

oh my god i love you...


i've been looking for this for a while


it was sklansky-karlson

[Jman28]

edit: nevermind

[Exactly]

A few things on this chart seem counter-intuitive to me. If you sort the data based on the Probability of winning a hand if your hand is called, it would appear some of the weakest hands have the greatest chances of winning.

For example, at 50/50 the AA hand is the greatest probability. This makes sense to me since only another AA will call, in which case it's a split pot.

However, the next highest probability of winning at .467 is the 22, followed by the Big Slick AKs at .457, with the 33 in fourth place at .454. How can a pair of two's have a higher probability of winning a showdown than an AK? There are 709 hands that will beat a pair of twos and only 75 that will beat an AKs.

How does this work? Is there a 'laymans' way to explain this phenomenon? Or am I just missing something?

Thanks,

Mh.

[GuitarMarc]

My first guess is that more hands would be willing to call 22 such as overcards like KQs but are still just a little better than 50 pct to win. I could be wrong but it seems that it's due to the greater willingness to call.

[PairTheBoard]

That's it. It shows 709 out of 1305 possible hands are worth a call against the 22. This is with an all in move of 49 BB. That's suprising to me that there are so many hands that are so close to a coin flip to be worth a call. There are enough coinflip type overcard hands to outweigh the effect of the big favorite overpairs to give an average win rate so high - 44%.

Notice with the KK there are only 7 hands worth a call against the Maximum All In Bet. The 1 remaining KK and the 6 possible AA combinations. Against 6 out of 7 of the hands that should call you, you are a big dog. Thus the low win rate for KK.

PairTheBoard