Mil $ sports stats problem I'm vigorously trying to resolve

[Grassroots1]

Mil $ sports stats problem I'm vigorously trying to resolve - Is it worth chasing break-even?? Any ideas/suggestions would be most appreciated.

Hello All,
I think I have an interesting question to pose to you
if you might have a mere couple minutes to consider it.
Hopefully it is in your ballpark (no pun intended)

In Las Vegas as you probably know wagering on
sports is legal. Basic wagering on baseball and
hockey is unlike football where there is a spread.

For these sports there is a "Money Line" and
for Favorites the convention is they are designated
by a minus (-) sign. -200 means you wager $20 to
profit $10. If you wager standard $20 wagers
you must win 66.67%(rounded) of the time to break
even over the long term.

What I do is parlay my wagers so if two wins
occur in a row I put $5 in a "Profit Pool" and I
have two more wagers of $20. Thus I have a tree
system - what I call Fav Tree.

IFF! (If and only if) the Favorite winning percentage
is a mere couple hundreths over standard wagering
break-even my profits and "yield" ($ profit /
$ wagered) ... "blows away" standard wagering profits
over the long term. IFF you can be a mere couple
hundreths over break-even I can readily demonstrate
by simulation your yield will be one beautiful thing.

The problem is picking consistently over the
long term even a smidgen over break-even for any
given money line -AND- Fav Tree won't work below
break-even ... because that is negative expectation
territory. No matter what gyrations I do in
"The Land Of Negative Expectation" my long term
expectation is a loss.

From my historical money line studies/observations
especially for baseball (MLB) it seems there's always
one or two money lines over the long term that have
a "good population" showing just a tad over standard
wagering Favorite Money line break-even for the entire
season ... thus positive expectation.

From my (corrected) Fav Tree simulator I see that
I need a mere few hundreths over "standard break-even"
in the -110 to -200 Money Line range to realize a
MUCH! higher profit and yield than standard wagering
after many iterations.

Higher Money Lines don't work because there is either
no or not enough money left over for the "Profit Pool"
on a split.

My idea is after the first week or so is to
"follow" which money lines show a tendency
for a winning percentage to remain the slightest
over break-even with a "good number" of
"occurrences" that make up the ratio.

I realize the danger that past performance is
no indication of future results and a given
money line may indeed start to "crap out" (no
pun intended) at any juncture. What was a
good Favorite winning percentage at a given
Money Line can "go south" at any time.

However that said, I also see that often the Money
Lines with the winning percentage over break even
with a decent number of "occurrences" can get to
points where one or two games don't change their
status of being over break-even.

My idea is to "follow the flow" that overall I'll
always be on the whole a mere few hundreths over
break-even ... that's all I need.

I was wondering how sound my logic is and is there
any mathematical formulae, principles and/or
criteria where it is valid/viable to do such
Favorite winning percentage "chasing"; perhaps
wagering a little at first and progressively/
proportionally (?) more as the winning percentages
for all the money lines becomes increasingly
established as the season wears on.

Thanks in advance for your consideration. I welcome
and look forward to your correspondence.

Regards,

Joel Shapiro

P.S. FWIW If you're intersted in experiencing my
Money Line Fav Tree simulator and the phenomena I
hope I've sufficiently described in this document
firsthand you can download it from my web page at

http://home.rochester.rr.com/grassroots1

[simulator link]

self extracting .zip file.

[Ctrl][l] (Lower case L) hotkey combination to
initiate macro.

Bolded blue cells are user defined.

You should be able to figure out the sheet and
what's going on from context.

JRS

[tech]

The responses at Fezzik's board didn't answer your question?