Is it ever correct NOT to go all-in with nuts (given the chance)?

[Scrapper12]

Here's the situation: $300 + $20 Supersatellite on Ultimate Bet. 104 players- top 3 win an Aruba Prize Package, including a buy-in to the UB Tournament in Aruba in September.

6th level (blinds 75/150) 52 players left (avg. 5000, leader about 11000). I have 5500 in chips.

I'm in the SB with AKo. Under the gun player and button limp, and I make it 750 to go. The BB folds, and the player under the gun thinks for about 25 seconds before finally calling. The button folds, so play is now heads up. I now have 4750 in chips, vs. 3500 for the player under the gun, and there's 1800 in the pot.

The important detail here is that I have now put the under the gun player on jacks due to the hesitation and subsequent call preflop. I thought the debate was about whether to just call or to reraise all-in preflop, given what he thought i might have. Possibly queens or tens, but, I assumed, most likely jacks.

The flop came down QJT, giving me the nut straight, and my opponent, I assumed, a set. I checked, giving my opponent the opportunity to bet. He bet the size of the pot (1800), more than half of his stack, I moved all-in, and after a two second hesitation, he called with his pocket jacks, exactly as I had predicted.

The turn was an ace, but the river card paired the queen on board, giving him a full house and the 8800 chip pot, and leaving me with 1200 in chips.

So the question is this ... given that I had put him on jacks preflop, and I was sure he was going to call my all-in bet on the flop, should I have decided to merely flat-call the flop bet and move in on the turn (assuming the board didn't pair)?

I'm only a 65% favorite after the flop, and a 73% favorite on the turn (if the board doesn't pair).

The obvious advantage of playing it the way I played it is I got the player to commit all of his chips in a situation where I had the best of it. However, in a situation where both of our stacks before the hand were rather healthy, did I want to take that 65% chance? I felt I had been playing exceptionally well to that point in the tourney, and the difference between 1200 and 2900 chips is pretty significant with the blinds at 75/150.

The way I see it, the advantages to flat-calling are as follows ... if the board pairs on the turn, hopefully I can check and get away from the hand, cutting my losses to a minimum ... if the board doesn't pair, I go all-in as a 73% favorite instead of a 65% favorite.

What would have happened, however, on the turn I've described, where the Ace fell? Or what would have happened had i flat-called and a King or a 9 fallen. I would still want to move all-in, given what I thought he had, but would he have called me? And would I have wanted a call, or would I have been content to win the 5400 pot at that point, giving me 8650 chips, and putting me in the top ten and very good position relative to the blinds?

I know what I think, in retrospect, but I'd love to hear more opinions ...

In any case, I ended up working my stack back to 2150, and was in the big blind with AT (9 hands after the above hand), when a 5800 chip stack went all-in, first in, from the button. I called in a flash and was extremely excited to see his A6. Unfortunately, a 6 flopped, and so did my Aruba chances that day ... c'est la vie.

[jccookjr]

No!

[ghostwriter]

You have to call. You have the nuts on the flop. The nuts don't always hold up. That's poker. The correct decision doesn't always work out. If it did the bad players would stop playing and then where would you be?

[mts]

Do you ever fold AA preflop? Thats the nuts.

[Simplistic]

you can call then push the turn, but since that Ace fell you'll probably take down the pot there but not get anymore money for it.

either push the flop or the turn.

[Scrapper12]

The question isn't whether or not I fold, I know I've got the best hand; the question for me was what's the best way to maximize what I win on the hand without jeopardizing my chances in the tournament (which only paid 3 places). If the board pairs on the turn I could hopefully have gotten away from the staight (I did put him on a set), and perhaps have made a comeback with 2900 in chips.

[Simplistic]

since you're playing conservatively, push the turn if the board doesn't pair.

[mts]

ah ok my bad. I was using reverse implied logic on your post title. lol.

[mts]

nt

[wjmooner]

Get the money in as a favorite when you can. Even if you smooth call the turn and the worst possible card comes off for villian (Ace or King) he still has odds (or close to it)to call the all in even if you flip your cards face-up and he sees you have the straight.

Don't second guess straight against set hands.

WJ