Why are 15/30 swings so dramatic?

[DDBeast]

I always hear how bad the swings are. Are there much more then 10/20? Is this because it is so much more aggressive or just because there's more money involved?

[David Steele]

2/3 small blind makes the game play almost as big as a 20-40.

[jdock99]

The players are A LOT better. So even for winning players, the edges are smaller, the standard deviation is higher, and the swings are greater.
Also, an interesting thing to think about is most people that start playing 15-30 start underbankrolled. So the only ones that survive are the ones that have huge positive swings in the beginning. Then, because they are winning, they keep playing, and eventually the cards even out. Then the "winning" player goes on a huge downward swing, which he believes is bad luck because he has overestimated his playing ability based on his initial good swing, and he starts crying about bad swings on bulletin boards. This is off course a gross overgeneralization, but I think it holds true for many at the mid limits.

[JAA]

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The players are A LOT better. So even for winning players, the edges are smaller, the standard deviation is higher, and the swings are greater.


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You're saying that the players at $15-$30 are a lot better than those at $10-$20? This isn't true.

- Jags

[KidPokerX]

Because the 2/3 blind structure makes for a looser game.
Looser game = higher variance.
Pretty simple.

-KidPokerX

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The players are A LOT better. So even for winning players, the edges are smaller, the standard deviation is higher, and the swings are greater.


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You're saying that the players at $15-$30 are a lot better than those at $10-$20? This isn't true.

- Jags

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Agreed. The good players may be much better, and the bad players may be more aggressive, but there are proportionately a lot more fish on 15 than on 10.

[Baulucky]

Because the players click on "RAISE" much more.

[DeeJ]

Silly question, but what's the average Players/Flop and VPIP stats on the Party 15/30 ? I mean average average, from loose tables to tight tables. Astro posted a falling-total some time way back, anyone know better up-to-date stats?

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The players are A LOT better. So even for winning players, the edges are smaller, the standard deviation is higher, and the swings are greater.


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You're saying that the players at $15-$30 are a lot better than those at $10-$20? This isn't true.

- Jags

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I'd agree with Jags here. I think the 15/30 often plays like a .5/1 with the trash I see shown down. It's a hyper aggressive game, which is what IMO really vamps up your variance. Alot of loose, aggressive players on all streets with any hand and often times its difficult to know where you stand in a hand. So you are putting in alot of bets postflop when you have the best of it, and when you think you have the best of it but the other player(s) have something completely unpredictable.

So, when you run good...you win big. When you run bad, you lose big. When you run mixed, you are up and down like a roller coaster. It's actually quite a twisted game, but I guess that makes it interesting! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

As far as the 10/20 full, I don't find the 15/30 full anything remotely close to the 10/20 full...in respect to Party and Aff.

[AviD]

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Because the players click on "RAISE" much more.

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Heh, that was the easiest answer! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]