How much to bet on the turn

kurto · #1 03-24-2005, 03:33 AM

I lost him on the turn. Was this good? Did I want to take it down here? If not, do I just call the reraise?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($33)
CO ($25)
Button ($24.5)
SB ($10.55)
Hero ($65.5)
UTG ($28.55)
UTG+1 ($32.81)
MP1 ($14.88)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $0.5, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.10) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($2.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $1, CO folds, Hero raises to $3, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $5, Hero raises to $25, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: $32.10

soah · #2 03-24-2005, 03:41 AM

I usually just bet out on the turn. Too likely it will get checked through again, and that board is scary. Anyone that takes a stab at the pot is likely to fold to a big check-raise, but there's a decent chance someone has something like second pair and will be more willing to call bets than to make the bets themselves. Someone on a draw may even make a bad call to chase it, and if they fold then that's good too.

kurto · #3 03-24-2005, 03:54 AM

"I usually just bet out on the turn. Too likely it will get checked through again," I agree with you. Though in this case, the preflop raiser was raising almost everytime in late position... and I never once saw him check through twice. I would have bet my stack that he wouldn't check through twice.

"and that board is scary." Yeah. If there wasn't 2 spades, I might have smooth called his reraise. But I couldn't stomach if I called his reraise and another spade hit.

I guess my question is... should I bet an amount just beyond what gives him proper odds for a call with a spade draw BUT that he might call, thereby winning a larger pot. Or is this a case where you say, "you got lucky, take what you got and be happy." lol

soah · #4 03-24-2005, 03:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my question is... should I bet an amount just beyond what gives him proper odds for a call with a spade draw BUT that he might call, thereby winning a larger pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll answer your question with another question. If a spade comes on the river, how often will you play it correctly against him?

kurto · #5 03-24-2005, 04:19 AM

"I'll answer your question with another question. If a spade comes on the river, how often will you play it correctly against him?" To be honest, I'm not entirely sure what the correct play is, as a generality. Though now that I've had time to ponder this... If I was him and I had the flush draw on the flop, I would have semi-bluffed. The fact that he didn't, makes me think he probably didn't have 2 spades. (if I had to guess, the min-raise seems most often to mean a small to medium pp... at least at $25NL on Pokerstars ... I just switched to party)

So, if I smoothcalled and a spade hit, I would have to make a blocking bet. Which could represent the flush (and cause him to fold) AND would likely also be bet for value.

I don't know if this is the correct play in general. I am curious to hear your thoughts.

soah · #6 03-24-2005, 05:14 AM

When I mentioned the correct play, I meant from a Fundamental Theorem of Poker standpoint. That is, how often will you put money in the pot on the river with the worst hand (and how much money?) and will you ever fold the winner? The same also applies if the board pairs on the river. Once you know the answer to these questions, you'll be able to figure out how much you need to bet on the turn in order to make the turn+river combination +EV.

zaxx19 · #7 03-24-2005, 05:50 AM

You guys think if he was on a spade draw he would reraise the CR on the turn....hmm perhaps if you are LAGing it up a ton...but probably not.

I make it 11.50(pot it) and push any river hoping he thinks I missed my draws.

pittisit · #8 03-24-2005, 05:57 AM

i make it 10 to 15 ish... value bet any nonpairing river card and check call anything else.

zaxx19 · #9 03-24-2005, 05:59 AM

Look at the stacks....

Villain wont have even like 70% of the pot left.

Auto-push for me. If he has a set its all gonna get in on the turn correct? So dont worry about the board pairing.

kurto · #10 03-24-2005, 11:36 AM

"When I mentioned the correct play, I meant from a Fundamental Theorem of Poker standpoint. That is, how often will you put money in the pot on the river with the worst hand (and how much money?)" Clearly if I knew for certain he had a flush, I would be done with the hand. (In which case, the correct answer to my earlier question was to raise enough that I hope I could shut him out of the hand.)

"and will you ever fold the winner?" It certainly has happened. If a spade came, I would have to balance how much he's betting against the likelihood that I think he's bluffing or betting on a lesser hand.

"Once you know the answer to these questions, you'll be able to figure out how much you need to bet on the turn in order to make the turn+river combination +EV." If I have to give him credit for BOTH a set AND a flush draw, then I could be afraid of close to 20 cards. In which case, I would want to bet the heck out of the river and shut it down.

This makes a read all important, doesn't it. For one would have to lay down too many hands if they give their opponents credit for every possible bad hand possible.

I would argue its more likely the opponent had a pocket pair, and possibly a set, then the flush draw... if only because he was a somewhat aggressive player (at least preflop) and was checked a board with a possible flush draw and checked it through. Though I could be giving him to much credit for being the tight of person to semibluff, it seems reasonable.