Implied "fish odds"

kurto · #1 03-22-2005, 03:19 AM

Villain is horrendously bad fish. He's seeing 56% of all flops... regardless of raises. Furthermore, he overbets on the river all the time. The kind of guy willing to bet his stack with bottom pair if he thinks he has it. Most of his stack is from worse players making ridiculous calls (calling him on the river with missed AK) and because people fold to his overbetting. With that in mind....

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($21.55)
Hero ($24.1)
SB ($45.15)
BB ($66)
UTG ($32)
UTG+1 ($45.2)
MP1 ($7)
MP2 ($53.6)
MP3 ($28.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75, MP1 folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($2.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($2.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

** My thoughts... based on his earlier play, I think its more likely he has a pair then a flush. He also would bluff. I think my outs are likely all clean (3*A + 3*Q + 9*diamonds) Furthermore, regardless of what hits, he will overbet on the river.

Call? Fold? Raise?

xorbie · #2 03-22-2005, 03:46 AM

With your read, a call is probably good. You have at least 12 outs, so you will hit 25% of the time. If your read is good, he will probably bet at least $7 or $8 on the river, and (if you hit the flush), call a reasonable raise.

Sounds good.

Miscreant · #3 03-22-2005, 11:52 AM

Implied odds make this a pretty easy call, especially in position where it will be easier to get $$ if you do hit, but be careful if just hitting a Q or A.

kurto · #4 03-22-2005, 12:44 PM

Hey, Xorbie. You were there for this hand. It wasn't the maniac-ish guy 3-4 seats to your left. It was the fishy guy a few seats to my left. You may remember who I mean... (knowing you were a 2+2er, I wanted to talk shop at the table... but kept it in. Boy did I want to bust that "Klak" guy.)

"If your read is good, he will probably bet at least $7 or $8 on the river" The flush hit and he bet $15!!! I actually had to slow down and make sure I wasn't missing something... had the board paired for a fullhouse? I was thrown off by the ferocity of his bet when I had the nuts.

I went all in for the rest... about another 5... and he called. I doubled up.

Though I knew the play worked, I just wasn't sure if it was a bad gamble. Any decent player would've shutdown when another diamond hit. My entire play was predicated on the assumption that the guy was so bad, he'd pay me off.

I guess I should thank Pokertracker!

gulebjorn · #5 03-22-2005, 12:51 PM

Was this 50NL? If it was, this shows why you should always have a full buyin in front of you. If not, sorry for the accusation [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Well played.

Rickyroodido · #6 03-22-2005, 12:52 PM

Do u even have to gamble against this guy? Why not wait until you pick up something solid. By that time he has probably grown overconfident, and u can take his money.

kurto · #7 03-22-2005, 01:02 PM

"Was this 50NL?" No. I hope to move up soon. I just bought in to Party this weekend (I'm a reformed pokerstars player) for $150. I'm at $450 now. I figure once I get to $1000... I'll move up a level. Question... is the level of play any different at party $50 NL?

kurto · #8 03-22-2005, 01:09 PM

"Do u even have to gamble against this guy? Why not wait until you pick up something solid." You might be right. Hence my confusion about whether or not this was a wise move.

The other way to look at it, I suppose, is this guy's going to give away a lot of money... Can I get a hand before he gives it to someone else who might be a little tougher?

The real question is... was it a big gamble? I risked $3 for a ~$5 pot... with a high potential to win $20 more.

I think the interesting/difficult question about the hand is... how much can you rely on a bad player's tendencies when making your decision? If he wouldn't pay off my flush.. then it was a terrible call on my part. I think the 'real' gamble was, 'is this guy going to be as idiotic and wreckless as I think he is.'

BobboFitos · #9 03-22-2005, 04:30 PM

hey kurt,

i like your thought process alot. nice job.

question though - if you spike an A or Q and he makes that same bet... do you call?

RiverFenix · #10 03-22-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question... is the level of play any different at party $50 NL?

[/ QUOTE ]
Pretty much the same, with good table selection youll find even more maniacs like this guy. Even at the 100NL tables too