Are we miscounting outs when we chase flushes?

octop · #1 03-21-2005, 11:15 PM

We know what the odds are for 9 outs iwth 1 or 2 cards left, but do we really always have 9 outs when we chase a flush?
The following hand is an example of the person chasing the flush having only 6 outs:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

SB ($260.25)
BB ($65.45)
UTG ($99)
UTG+1 ($100)
UTG+2 ($123.45)
MP1 ($94.8)
MP2 ($112.2)
MP3 ($114.35)
Hero ($113.4)
Button ($41.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1.

Flop: ($10.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $3, Hero raises to $12, Button folds, BB calls $12, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $9.

Turn: ($46.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $40, BB folds, MP1 calls $40.

River: ($126.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $41, MP1 calls $40.80 (All-In).

Final Pot: $208.30

Results in white below: 
MP1 has Tc Ac (one pair, aces).
Hero has 7d 7s (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins $208.29. 
Now clearly in this situation 3 of the 9 remaining clubs either a full house or quads
Should we be disocunting outs on flush draws?

Niediam · #2 03-21-2005, 11:19 PM

I'd say more often it's the reverse and we have outs in addition to the nine which would make a flush.

PokrLikeItsProse · #3 03-22-2005, 01:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Now clearly in this situation 3 of the 9 remaining clubs either a full house or quads
Should we be discounting outs on flush draws?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since a set is a tiny fraction of the hands that your opponent could have, it makes sense to not worry about a possible full house until the board actually pairs.

Because there are times when you opponents have redraws if you make your hand, it makes sense that you need slightly better pot odds than the exact odds of you winning.

pzhon · #4 03-22-2005, 03:06 AM

That was 7 outs rather than 6 outs.

Against many hands, a flush draw may have 9-15 outs, and the few percent of runner-runner draws are valuable. Typically, a flush draw will win 37%-55% if it is behind. However, a flush draw may also be the best made hand if your opponent has a pure bluff or is semi-bluffing.

Against a set or trips, the redraws and false outs mean a flush draw usually only wins a bit more than 25% from the flop.

Paul2432 · #5 03-22-2005, 11:23 AM

I think a more common scenario for miscounting flush outs is in a multiway pot with a non-nut flush draw. Here it is possible to be drawing to zero outs with a small suited connector if a higher flush draw is present.

In rare cases even the nut flush draw will only be drawing to three outs. For example:

Board 7c 6c 3s 2d

Hand 1: Ac Kc
Hand 2: 9c 8c
Hand 3: 7s 7d

Paul