A4s and three cold-calls

Nick C · #1 03-19-2005, 03:48 PM

My troubles began preflop, when I limped instead of mucking like I ordinarily would. I was having a bad session and think I was starting to tilt a bit.

Anyway, what I'm really wondering about is the river. I may have gotten too attached to the call button. If so, do I fold the first time around or when it comes back to me capped?

SB seemed decent. He's sLA-P (28/6/1.2) after 59 hands. I was more concerned about his hand than BB's.

BB was clearly a LAG. His stats are 59/22/3 after 102 hands.

MP2 is TP-P (13/5/0.6) after 165 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero calls, MP2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 25 BB

Shillx · #2 03-19-2005, 04:01 PM

Your turn play is fine imo. Even if someone flipped up a set, you still have good enough odds to put bets in on the turn. As is stands, you would have 7 outs (15.9% chance of winning) and the pot would be 13 BB = 13*.159 - 3 = -.93 BB/Hand. So you would have to collect .93 bets on the river when you hit (which is well within reason).

So let's say that everytime you make the nuts you get 4 BB on the river (you get 2 BB from each of them) and you lose 4 BB everytime you make a flush that isn't the nuts. In this case, you will be winning 28 BB for the 7 times you hit the nuts and lose 8 BB for the 2 times you get cold decked. That works out to 20 BB per nine hands or 2.22 BB/Hand. Since this is higher then the .93 BB/Hand that you need to collect, playing it this way will be +EV in the long run. So even in the worst case scenario, you still come out ahead.

Brad

Nick C · #3 03-19-2005, 06:08 PM

Shill,

On the turn, I think the wheel gutshot is also a consideration.

Anyway, once I've made it to the river and it comes back to me capped, what do you think of the second river cold-call?

Nick C · #4 03-20-2005, 04:52 AM

All right, I guess Shill isn't on duty at the moment on this forum, but I really am curious about the river. So maybe someone else could comment?

This hand came from one of my worst-ever sessions (and it was just last night, so I'm still trying to sort it out).

CaliStyle · #5 03-20-2005, 05:15 AM

I like your first cold call, but I don't like the call to the three bet or capped. It is obvious here someone was trying to check raise the flop or slow play a set or top two pair.

CaliStyle · #6 03-20-2005, 05:19 AM

After looking at the preflop action it looks to me like one guy has pocket threes or pocket jacks and the other has, pocket threes, pocket jacks, or king jack. So if the board pairs on the river like this on the river and there is a bet and raise showing no worries about a flush I might fold for the first two bets, but defintely for the last two. Think about, the worst one of them has is ace king, maybe king queen and the other one has that beat.

admiralfluff · #7 03-20-2005, 05:20 AM

It's really tough with BB in the hand. If SB is decent, he may be playing BB for the maniac sucker he is, and could have AK here sometimes. With you showing no aggression in the hand, it's hard to say that SB has a boat here more than 9/10 times. I guess it depends on how much of a LAG BB is post flop, but if SB thinks this guys a maniac, he could easily play AK this way, so that pushes it to a call for me. Under more normal circumstances, I call the 2 cold, and piss, moan, and fold for 2 more.

wrto4556 · #8 03-20-2005, 05:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn play is fine imo. Even if someone flipped up a set, you still have good enough odds to put bets in on the turn. As is stands, you would have 7 outs (15.9% chance of winning) and the pot would be 13 BB = 13*.159 - 3 = -.93 BB/Hand. So you would have to collect .93 bets on the river when you hit (which is well within reason).

So let's say that everytime you make the nuts you get 4 BB on the river (you get 2 BB from each of them) and you lose 4 BB everytime you make a flush that isn't the nuts. In this case, you will be winning 28 BB for the 7 times you hit the nuts and lose 8 BB for the 2 times you get cold decked. That works out to 20 BB per nine hands or 2.22 BB/Hand. Since this is higher then the .93 BB/Hand that you need to collect, playing it this way will be +EV in the long run. So even in the worst case scenario, you still come out ahead.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Your answer is in there. Call the river, the pot is too big to fold.

admiralfluff · #9 03-20-2005, 05:34 AM

Shill's analysis shows that if nick plays this hand when it is the nuts, when it is not the nuts but still a winner, and when it is not the nuts and is a loser, he will make money in the long run. It shows that from the turn on, there is no way to turn the hand into -EV. Clearly, if nick could fold when the hand was behind, he would make more moeny. THe real question, is whether or not this particular situation is one of those in which nick can correctly fold, increasing the inarguably positive value of the hand. A play can make you money and still be incorrect.

wrto4556 · #10 03-20-2005, 05:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
THe real question, is whether or not this particular situation is one of those in which nick can correctly fold, increasing the inarguably positive value of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a pot this big? I think i'd puke if I folded the best hand.