A 10 year plan [another 'will the games stay this good post]

[1800GAMBLER]

Sorry for beating on this again, but there's a poll included!

I'm trying to treat poker more as a business so i can organise my life more and put some solid long and short term goals down. The hardest part in this is predicting the future trends, given how high a variance the poker business has and the current boom.

In my personal situation if i was somehow told that for the next 30 years the 15/30 online games would never get so bad that my WR would never drop below 0.5bb/hour, i know that i'd use poker for my main source of income for those 30 years.

It seems unlikely to me that this would happen to the 15/30 game, it seems the 15/30 game is at the perfect center of the equilibrum controlling rate of new players vs rate of players busting out. 30/60 and 100/200 have shown moderate amount of sufferings over the past year due to this.

Yet even 15/30 has started to converge downwards because of the high earnings people are making and the low skill level it takes for this, so lots of new players came into the game (a lot from this forum) and lots multitabled and i expect this is way from over yet, but i'm still unsure about how confident i am about that.

That's just one issue in the whole ballpack of US laws, bots and maybe we're in a huge boom and don't realise it.

So here's a question that is in no way directly related to my situation that should help me get the weight opinions of people in the know. Hopefully people who have played professional for the last 5 years can give their thoughts and stories of the games over the last 5 years.

In 10 years what would a player who's earning 3bb/100h at 15/30 be earning in the same game? Assume he's earned this rate over the past 2 years, which is all of his poker career. His main goal is always to continue learning rather than winning money and throughout this 10 years he will be moving up stakes and devloping his game. He's also already played in a variety of different games with different styles and at different stakes and been successful.

Thanks

[sam h]

I don't see why you think this poll will tell you anything useful. You've probably put much more thought into this issue than your average respondent, so just trust your own judgement or selectively ask people who might actually know something.

[1800GAMBLER]

It's probably going to be normally dist. around 1.8bb/100h. It's nice to just know other players think the same, but i would put a lot more weight to someone like astro commenting on it or Tommy commenting on the past 10 years.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
It's probably going to be normally dist. around 1.8bb/100h. It's nice to just know other players think the same, but i would put a lot more weight to someone like astro commenting on it or Tommy commenting on the past 10 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do hope someone with more experience weighs in on this one. I have trouble seeing this as little more than a poker boom, like tech stocks in the late 90s. Make your money while you can people, it is gonna get a lot tougher in the future.

CSC

[TStoneMBD]

obviously im not suited to answer this question, but my guess is that your win rate will actually increase. the games might become a little bit more difficult, but you will in turn become much, much better. maybe your $/hr will decrease at 15/30, but your $/hr should increase as you progress through the limits.

[anuj]

What about the simple fact that there is currently a poker "revolution" going on and that in 3-5 years, there will be less people playing as there are now (if it's a temporary boom).

I think as a result of a decline in popularity (read popularity: fish) the average winning player's bb/100 will decrease as his competition will, not necessarilly increase, but consist of other winning players. These are winning players who either played before the boom or "post-boom" players who continue to play.

Does this make any sense? I mean, the number of WSOP entries can not continue to double every year, otherwise the entire state of Nevada would have to become a gigantic poker room for the month of May to house all 30,000 entrants, in a few years (which leads to another question: How crazy are the world series games going to be with 5,000 entrants next year?)

I spent a few minutes searching for how many people played on a site such as PartyPoker several years ago to no avail, sureless much less that ~50,000 now at peak times.

[TStoneMBD]

i really have no idea what the future expectation of poker is supposed to look like, but i understand that most people think it will decline. how do you know that? isnt it possible that poker rivals golf and tennis in terms of television ratings and competitive players for the next 40 years? even if the game does decline, in 10 years players like 1800gambler should have become so skillful that they can move on to bigger games. poker is a food chain, no reason why players dedicated for a 10 year period cant climb to the top.

[Michael Davis]

"obviously im not suited to answer this question, but my guess is that your win rate will actually increase. the games might become a little bit more difficult, but you will in turn become much, much better. maybe your $/hr will decrease at 15/30, but your $/hr should increase as you progress through the limits."

I seriously doubt this. First, the limits aren't there to move up through. Second, even though Gambler apparently hates me, I'll brownnose by saying that he probably can't much better. Or let's use the hypothetical player. If he's beating the game for 3/100, he's just not got much room to improve.

There really just aren't any higher limits to progress through that can be expected to remain steady.

-Michael

[Baulucky]

Not what you want to hear, but something to consider:

Play a lot and save for 4-5 years and maybe you can put $2M+ away. Whatever happens in the 26 years after that is going to be pretty inconsequential. You are almost there, you just need to put in the number of hands and scoop in the cash.

My personal plan is to get into 15-30 and 30-60 by June and just scoop it in for 4 years maximum, while starting other agressive investments after the first $500K is secured.

Edited to add: "Never take yours or others' long term plans too seriously". The longer the term the weaker the plan.

[anuj]

[ QUOTE ]
i really have no idea what the future expectation of poker is supposed to look like, but i understand that most people think it will decline. how do you know that? isnt it possible that poker rivals golf and tennis in terms of television ratings and competitive players for the next 40 years? even if the game does decline, in 10 years players like 1800gambler should have become so skillful that they can move on to bigger games. poker is a food chain, no reason why players dedicated for a 10 year period cant climb to the top.

[/ QUOTE ]Poker has been on TV for 30 years or so, it just got popular all of a sudden. I can't think of any reasons for it to remain this popular for more than a few years.