Cap it UP: J8s?

[TStoneMBD]

20/40 at Stone. Solid player to my left who plays for a living. He's a nice guy but seems to be a little sick of me raising 6 limpers with suited cards. Oh btw, every hand has 6 limpers. Anyway, 4 limpers to me on CO. I have J8s and decide to raise it up. Usually I wouldn't do this but I like to mix things up sometimes. Is this a bad play? Solid player on the button 3bets it. So I'm a little upset cause I figure all my limpers are gonna fold killing my pot odds. Nope. The BB and all 4 limpers call. I decide to cap it up. Is this horrible?

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
He's a nice guy but seems to be a little sick of me raising 6 limpers with suited cards. Oh btw, every hand has 6 limpers

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I have J8s and decide to raise it up. Usually I wouldn't do this but I like to mix things up sometimes..

[/ QUOTE ]

Your opponents are no doubt thinking, "this guys been raising with suited crap all night and I am damn well sick of it, but that was when there were six of us, there are only four now...hmm...I bet he's got a big hand!" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, the recent thread on T9s seems relevant here.

[mike l.]

the answer is a yes. i was drawn to this thread because as a matter of fact i had a hand playing a mediocre 20-40 game at the mirage w/ tommy, gabe, and the babe at the table a month or two ago where utg raised, utg+1 reraised and i 4 bet in middle position and took down a nice pot when i flopped a J and it held up.

so, yes, if there was any doubt before im glad the word is out: J8s is a 4 betting hand in pretty much any mid limit hold em game around. it's an obvious chip winner.

[Josh W]

If you have a $40,000 bankroll, this is fine.

See, with 7 opponents, and you having good position (not the best, but good), J8s is a fine hand to play.

By capping, you are obviously drastically increasing your variance, but probably not hurting your EV. Given the increase in your variance, you need to have at least a 1000BB bankroll.

Josh

[worm33]

All I have to say is you must run GOOOOOD for you to ask this question. What does your bankroll have to do with this being a winning play or not? You honestly think this play is a winning one if you have a huge bankroll? So if I went to play 4-8 this would be a winning play?

[danderso8]

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All I have to say is you must run GOOOOOD for you to ask this question. What does your bankroll have to do with this being a winning play or not? You honestly think this play is a winning one if you have a huge bankroll? So if I went to play 4-8 this would be a winning play?

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You are correct in saying the size of the bankroll has nothing to do with whether the play is winning (i.e., +EV) or not. What Josh was saying in his post (to which it looks like you meant to address your reply) was that the variance with this play is very high...the play is expected to win, but since the edge that a player has with it is very small, the "long run" becomes very, very long. Thus, the variance could make a small bankroll go broke.

-dan

[SpaceAce]

If you had KQs on the button I could see making this play. J8s in the cutoff with a three-bettor behind you, though? I can't believe that's much of a winning play.

SpaceAce

[etizzle]

to answer the question: its not terrible. I wouldn't do it very often, but its probably neutral ev or slightly +ev.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
All I have to say is you must run GOOOOOD for you to ask this question. What does your bankroll have to do with this being a winning play or not? You honestly think this play is a winning one if you have a huge bankroll? So if I went to play 4-8 this would be a winning play?

[/ QUOTE ]

As Dan pointed out....

Your bankroll has no bearing on whether or not a play is a winning play...but it can have a bearing on whether or not it is a smart play to make.

If you have too small of a bankroll, any play that increases your variance too much (relative to increasing your EV) is very risky, and not smart.

I never claimed that this play is a big winner...just that it probably isn't -EV. If you don't have a substantial-enough bankroll to withstand the variance that this will induce, it is certainly a foolish play. If you have the bankroll, it isn't a bad play.

Nowhere do I advocate such a play, though, regardless of bankroll size....

Josh

[pokerstudAA]

I had a similar hand recently and was told that my play with J9s was terrible. I would like some additional opinions......



Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $5.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: Keep in mind the UTG+1 poster's dead money (who clearly had no idea...) The UTG+2 - initial raiser/capper- was a LAG who had played decently up to this point. With the cold call between myself and the raiser I decided my J9s was playable but wanted to raise it - attempting to buy the button and mabye get a few over cards in LP or the blinds to fold. The cap from UTG+2 made me put him on a big hand AK, AA, KK, or QQ. Mabye AQ or JJ. Any others I should consider?


Flop: (17.40 SB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: No reason to check here - make any diamond draw pay. I definately think the trip 9s ares good with no more diamonds.

Turn: (10.20 BB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: I probably should have raised here looking at this...but I seen something fishy was going on with UTG+2 capping prefolp and trapping with a big pair.


River: (22.20 BB) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

River: Ah, the diamond. I guess if UTG+2 has a big pair he cannot have aflush. MP2? F-it. Bet. Value bet or asking for check raise?

Final Pot: 25.20 BB




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