Hand equity and deciding whether to bluff.

[Isles]

Do you use your hand equity in factoring whether or not to bluff an opponent? Or is it simply based on the amount in the pot, the cost of the bluff, and the possibility percentage your opponent will fold?

For example, if I am heads up, and I have a hand equity of 45%, and there is a 20% chance my opponent will fold, is it correct to add the two and come to 65% and determine that it is correct to bet?

[Evan]

Off the top of my head I'd say sort of. I think you would really want to look at:

Your equity + bluff equity - (your equity*bluff equity)

This kinda assumes that the intersection of times your best and times he folds = yourequity*bluff equity.

I think this is right, I just made it up but it makes sense.

EDIT: Equity would have to expressed in percent, not in bets.

[sthief09]

where's the Vehn diagram?

[Isles]

So you would need to add the two percentages, then subtract a multiplication of the two?

Using my example above:

45% = 20% = 65%
45% x 20% = 13%

So 65% - 13% = 52%.

So my factor is 52%?

That's not much better than 45% lol.

So on the fly you could figure adding about 1/4 of your bluffing percentage to your equity? That would at least get you to 50% off the top of your head.

That's cutting it pretty close considering you are just estimating to begin with...

[Evan]

For those of you that are more graphically inclined it would be: Green + Red - Blue

[elmitchbo]

if you have a 45% chance to win the hand, then i would consider a bet more of a semi-bluff. 45% isn't all that bad. i think a 'bluff' would be more like 10% chance to win the hand.

i like the math in the other response, but i got a slightly different number with my bastardized math. in a series of 10 hands using your scenario.... he folds 2 times and you win 45% of the remaining 8 hands... that gives me 3.6+2=5.6 out of 10 or 56%.

one thing i will add that is NL specific. HOH desribes the continuation bet as a similar thing to your semi-bluff. if you bet half the pot and your opponent folds 1/3 of the time then it's a break even bet evem if you lose when you get called.

[MercTec]

I think bluff equity is a bad term here. I think folding equity would be more appropriate.

[axioma]

what you are talking about is a semibluff, rather than a pure bluff.

its discussed in detail in TOP.

and heh, a Venn diagram is hardly suitable here, do you see why? funny though [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].



and yes, i also make it 56%, as follows:

(0.45 * 0.8) + 0.2 = 0.56 = 56%

[Evan]

how is it not suitable?

[BottlesOf]

Is it? I understand you don't want to count the overlapping region twice, but that area should be counted once, no?