#1
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Calculating an EV neutral bet
This is a hand I posted in the MTT forum. I wanted to know how much to bet post flop in order to induce a unprofitable call.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter UTG+2 (t2535) MP1 (t665) MP2 (t925) MP3 (t1410) Hero (t965) Button (t860) SB (t1385) BB (t860) UTG (t1110) UTG+1 (t1060) Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, MP3 calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t240, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t235, MP3 folds. Flop: (t825) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t715 (All-In)</font>, SB folds, MP2 folds. Final Pot: t1540 If I think one opponent has a pocket pair less than mine and he will take all my chips if he gets his set, he should call any bet less than T65 (2 cards remaining from 47, with a final pot - assuming they get my stack - of 1540). If I think my other opponent has Ax (but not AK) would I be correct to say he should call anything up to T53 (3 cards remaining from 47, with a final pot - assuming I fold if an Ace falls - of 825)? I felt afterwards I could have extracted more by betting, say, 200, and getting at least one caller. From this calculation it looks as though a bet of a 100 would still have been +EV for me. Given my assumptions are my calculations correct? Thanks in anticipation. |
#2
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Re: Calculating an EV neutral bet
I don't think you can look at it like that. The problem is, they don't know what you have, so they can't make those kinds of calculations.
Btw - what astonishingly bad calls those were, especially the limp-caller. How do you limp-call a 2.5x pot bet? |
#3
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Re: Calculating an EV neutral bet
The calculation was for me. If they have those hands, then are those the correct amounts. In other words, if the cards were laid out for all to see.
[Very true what you say about the limp calls which is why I wish I'd bet far less - T200 perhaps] |
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