OK, Here's a small edge, call or not?

Double Eagle · #1 02-28-2005, 04:50 PM

Here is a hand from this morning's $5.50 rebuy on Stars. 100 left, Avg. Stack is around 25k, leaders at 90k or so. Assuming you put the villain 95% on AK here who calls and who folds?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) converter

CO (t46939)
Button (t29825)
SB (t35736)
Hero (t34867)
UTG (t22868)
UTG+1 (t21715)
MP1 (t45078)
MP2 (t27442)
MP3 (t16720)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to t27367, 4 folds, Hero??

2005 · #2 02-28-2005, 04:56 PM

I don't put him 95% on AK though... I'd say 50% AK-AQ, 45% 88-JJ and 5% or less AA or KK. Given this range of hands, it's an instant call. BTW, can you really be 95% certain of his hand when he's only had one action so far? I would need a little more information to put this guy that squarely on AK.

Gavin Griffin

ThomB · #3 02-28-2005, 05:00 PM

I would call as its hard to put him 95% on AK in this situation, more likely to be an underpair..

schwza · #4 02-28-2005, 05:01 PM

in a real game, i'd definitely call.

if we somehow thought that this raise meant a 100% chance he had AK (made it 100 b/c you didn't specify what he'd have the other 5%), i'd call. a ~57% chance to double up, plus a discount for the blinds, you've gotta call. no way you'd fold AK against a known T9s, right? that's only a 59% winner.

Prime Time · #5 02-28-2005, 05:04 PM

If he through his AK hand face up, I'd call, and would muck only to AA or KK.

But I would call.

Double Eagle · #6 02-28-2005, 05:47 PM

I've seen this particular player make the same bet with AK on multiple occasions, so my read here was pretty solid, if slightly exagerated percentage-wise. To the extent that I thought he might have anything else, I thought KK/JJ would be the other possibilities (evenly weighted) so I figured to be somewhere around 57%. Intellectually I know I should make the call with this edge, but it feels much worse to be calling instead of betting here.....

adanthar · #7 02-28-2005, 05:57 PM

57%, crippled but not out if you lose, monster stack if you win, mooooooooooooooooo.

hurlyburly · #8 02-28-2005, 06:01 PM

I'm going to be the dissenter here. If he tells me truthfully that he has AK I'm going to fold. While I'm in great shape if I win, I'm absolutely devastated if I lose, and he's guaranteed all 5 cards if I call. UTG and UTG+1 are my deciding factor. They are ripe for steals over the next couple rotations. If you get chopped to 10k here, stealing is going to be very hard.

My range for him is 99-JJ, KK-AA, and AK. I'm only going to be happy seeing 50% of these hands. I can't discount AA/KK here because he may be looking for a loose caller putting him on a steal. It is a low-limit rebuy, who knows how he got those chips, and there's plenty of folks available who will call with worse hands.

Would you call here with any PP or just TT-QQ?

SossMan · #9 03-01-2005, 03:13 AM

If you are good enough to read anyone 95% on any given hand after one preflop action, then you should pass on this and many larger chipEV situations.

I mean like Hellmuthian folds.

Double Eagle · #10 03-01-2005, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are good enough to read anyone 95% on any given hand after one preflop action, then you should pass on this and many larger chipEV situations.

I mean like Hellmuthian folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn I guess I should have folded [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]