Question about Hand Analyzing Process

Unparagoned · #1 02-28-2005, 05:10 PM

Alright, so I made a final table the other day at a Party 30+3 and I wanted to present the hand I busted out on as well as my analysis of it. This is not a bad beat post, I just want to make sure that my thinking is good and that the process I am using to physically calculate is right. Ok, so to set it up, I should say that I have played at least a few hands with everyone at the final table except the BB (who happens to be the villain). The other players probably think I am aggressive and I know at least one of them was at my table on the bubble where I was the big stack and raising basically 2/3 hands for a little over an orbit. Myself an a couple other players have been seesawing over the largest stack position from about 100 players down to the final 10, and I have probably held the chip lead for about 75% of that time. Anyways, I have no real reads on the BB, so I just assume he's a normal, decent player. I should also mention that all of my analysis is essentially going to ignore the CO because I don't want to complicate things too much (not even sure if I have it right as is!).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t138155)
UTG (t54981)
UTG+1 (t51440)
UTG+2 (t68192)
MP1 (t123836)
MP2 (t141641)
MP3 (t188005)
CO (t3678)
Hero (t103679)
SB (t36393)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
6 folds, CO calls [t3678] , Hero calls [t103679] , 1 fold, BB calls t93679.

Flop: (t108679) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

Turn: (t108679) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

River: (t108679) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

Final Pot: t108679

Results in white below: 

BB has Qh Kh (three of a kind, kings).
CO has Ad 6c (one pair, kings).
Hero has As Ts (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: BB wins t108679. 

My thought process is that I want to win (duh). So, I intend to play aggressively, trying to pick up lots of blinds, putting middle stacks to the test. The money all seems to be in the first few spots (and 1st gets 6600 versus the 480 I got for busting 9th). I want to accumulate some more chips quickly so that I can be in position to take advantage of those 6xBBers that will inevitably be folding in an attempt to inch up the ladder (perhaps this assumption is a bad one, but I have seen alot of it...).

When it is folded to me (yes, I am essentially ignoring the small stack that went all-in from the CO), I find ATs on the button and see 15,000 chips in the pot already, this seems like an easy push. Now, let me present you with my calculations and you can tell me if I'm even doing them correctly.

Range of hands: AA-77, AK-AQ. I recognize that going down to 77 might be a bit broad for me to assume, but he does have me covered. Now, I'm not exactly sure how often he ends up with one of these hands, but I estimated he calls 20% of the time, guessing that I am overestimating how often he will actually wake up to one of these hands. Pokerstove has me winning 35% of the time (losing 65%), or near enough to that for my purposes. Now for the math...

.2(.35(108,000)+ .65(-103,000))+ .8(15,000)
This is a rounded-off set of numbers that ignores the CO because I didn't want to complicate things for myself. Did I set this up right or am I missing something simple? As I have set it up, this seems like a solid +EV play, but I feel like I might be missing something and want to make sure I understand how to go through this.

I would appreciate responses regarding my thinking, my application of thinking to actual play and any affirmations or corrections of the actual EV calculation.

2005 · #2 02-28-2005, 05:21 PM

There is no range of hands... he hasn't acted yet. The two blind hands are random. You made a good push here IMO. You got called by a hand that you're a 3-2 fav against and lost. I'm not sure there is any analysis to be done here.

Gavin

schwza · #3 02-28-2005, 05:49 PM

everything here was standard except for the BB's horrible call.