NCAA (2/26) - I'm with CCx: a lot more chalk than I'd like

slogger · #1 02-26-2005, 02:47 PM

YTD: 9-4

Duke -12 @ St. John's
Duke should be about a 15-point favorite here. St. John's has been dreadful.

Kentucky +3 @ Bama
This line just appears to be off by about 3 points.

UConn +2.5 @ Pitt
I had UConn as a small favorite to win this outright. Happy to take a couple points.

Texas A&M -2 vs. Texas Tech
Struggled with this one mightily. Looking at power ratings, I was very tempted to get on Texas Tech here, but they're trending terribly ATS in games like this and I don't want to go against the Unranked vs. Ranked trend, which has been good to me this year. This was very close to a no-play for me, but I wanted to remain consistent with the above-mentioned trend.

Washington -5 vs. Arizona
Would've preferred to get this when it was -4.5, but the Huskies look like 7-point favorite here.

Louisville -3.5 @ Memphis
Another game that could be a 7-point spread.

Akron +4 @ Kent St.
Kent may win this SU, but I like Akron's chances and don't think they will lose by more than a bucket.

tech · #2 02-26-2005, 03:05 PM

People have this perception that sharps are supposed to play underdogs. In hoops, the facts just don't support this type of underdog bias. If you look at historical data in hoops, favorites and underdogs are very close to 50/50, and if there is an advantage to either side it is to the favorites. A lot of this can probably be attributed to the fouling sprees that occur at the ends of games.

Bottom line -- Beating hoops is all about spotting bad lines, either favorite or dog.

MHoydilla · #3 02-26-2005, 03:06 PM

I was thinking the same thing about Uconn +2. They have been playing very well of late. Uconn lost earlier this year to Pitt at home by 10, but were up by 17 in the 2nd half. Anyone else betting this game either way?

mmbt0ne · #4 02-26-2005, 04:22 PM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
Kentucky +3 @ Bama
This line just appears to be off by about 3 points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Patrick Sparks is a freakin assassin.

 GO CATS

Blackjack · #5 02-27-2005, 06:32 AM

Sweet night!

You went 5-2 and both your losses were by 1 point off of the spread.

Remind me to start sweating your picks.

14-6 is a pretty decent record.

CCx · #6 02-27-2005, 08:28 AM

Slogger, good day for you, congrats!

slogger · #7 02-28-2005, 01:55 AM

Nothing like a little beginner's luck. It'd be nice if I could keep this up for a while, but I have no delusions of expecting a rate anywhere near what I got going right now.

slogger · #8 02-28-2005, 02:11 AM

Thanks for the flattery, but I'm a total newb and my analysis at this point is very simplistic.

I'm a poker player who's always been fascinated by sports betting/handicapping. Reason I've avoided it until now is that I wasn't aware of any sound principles of beating the books and I was afraid I'd get hooked and blow all my poker winnings.

Between browsing this forum and doing some outside reading, I've come to understand how the game can be approached with +EV. So, now that I have some suplus funds (from poker), I decided to invest a small percentage of those funds in sports. I'm off to an excellent start, but as in poker, this can only mean that there is a downswing somewhere in my future. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]