Call...Raise...or Fold...

CJC · #1 09-12-2002, 12:34 AM

Howdy again folks...

I played a bunch of cards in the last few days. Went rather well..

Anywhoo..here is an interesting situation that developed.

Rather than get into all the specifics..I will just briefly mention 6th street..as that's where we will be pondering as to what to do.

We have a made 7 high straight..

The opponent to our immediate left has open Jacks and is high on board. ( We have (correctly) read him for Aces and Jacks ) He bets..

There are two opponents between him and me. Both call his bet. Both of those opponents have monster draws which will beat my hand if made.

Action is now to me.
Do I call,Raise,or Fold... and why?

Assume that no opponent will fold if I raise. ( also assume that the Aces-up will NOT re-raise if I do )

Also, all of my opponents needed cards are very live.

CJ

#2 09-12-2002, 02:07 AM

If you are sure you are ahead, then raise if you finish with the best hand more than 1/4 of the time, AND you will be checked to on the end, OR can safely fold to a bet. Since there's only 1 possible "calling" hand out there, you would need to win 50% to make a river bet profitable, so if you are checked to on the end, check also.

To raise, you need to be sure you are ahead. The river action should be fairly transparent, but you need to resist the urge to bet if checked to, unless the others would definitely bet a made hand.

If there were many draw against you , or the other 2 daraw were enormous (like live straight-flush draws, open ended) then you win less than 1/4, and a bet is wrong. But with one card to come, few draws are so big that 2 of them plus a 4 outer would ruin the value of a raise with a straight.

CJC · #3 09-12-2002, 05:06 AM

Yes, I was sure I was ahead on 6th street...

CJ

#4 09-12-2002, 10:51 AM

This is really a pure question of card odds, since you stipulate that you "know" the hands. As Dan Z. noted, you are getting 3-1 on your bet, so the question is how many outs does the field have? Assuming all cards live, two pair has four outs (two aces, two jacks), an open ended str8 draw would have 8 outs, a flush draw would have 9 outs. Now, I'm sure these draws weren't THAT live. So let's say the str8 and flush have five outs each. That's a total of 14 cards that can beat you, but let's say there are three duplicated cards (ie. common cards that will help either of two opponents), so there are eleven outs. Assuming the other four players folded on third, you have seen 22 cards. So there are 30 left, 11 of which beat you. You have no redraw. So you are less than a 2-1 favorite against the combined field, by my calculation, therefore this raise has negative EV.

The other factor is how the river will play -- and it can't be good for you with three players all drawing. So I don't think you have any implied odds.

#5 09-12-2002, 11:12 AM

THis is stud, not hold 'em. You need to caluclute the probability that A draws out, and C draws out. Take (1 - p(A))*(1 - p(B)) * (1 - p(C)). This is only roughly correct because of shared/not shred outs, but it's close enough. You will generally win more than 1 in 4, given that one draw is very modest, so rasing is correct.

AlanBostick · #6 09-12-2002, 02:27 PM

Isn't it the case that if our hero were "less than a 2-1 favorite over the field" and he's getting 3:1 for his additional bet if he's raising, he's getting the best of it and should therefore raise?

Andy B · #7 09-12-2002, 04:29 PM

You are correct. Now I don't know if he's a 2:1 favorite or what, since we haven't been told precisely how monstrous the draws are. No one has yet pointed out what I think is the most important reason to raise--you just might buy yourself a free showdown. You have three guys drawing to beat you. If you raise sixth, any one of them should try for a check-raise if he improves. You of course can't possibly bet the river, as your only hope to get paid off by a worse hand is the Aces-up hand, and you could be check-raised in any of three spots.

#8 09-12-2002, 04:37 PM

Dan and Alan,

You are both right, of course. I was just realizing that I needed to do the calculations as you (Dan) describe, and realizing that the odds on this bet would work when I got a business call and had to get back to work. Not wanting to lose what I'd written, I posted it.

Given that a bet seems to in fact have positive EV here, why do I hate making it so much?

#9 09-12-2002, 07:30 PM

You hate it because you will lose most of the time, and are not drawing to anything - you are hopsing 3 people miss. But this is not what matters - having an overlay is what matters, and you almost certainly do.

CJC · #10 09-13-2002, 05:51 AM

Hello,

Well I see we have had a few different interpretations as to what to do.

Well I wasn't really too sure myself. And I am a very agressive player too. I knew I had the best hand at the moment, But those other two very live draws worried me. ( They were both straight flush draws by the way, that much I knew )

I just called the 6th street bet and did not re-raise.

River..

Open Jacks bet out. both other 2 opponents had disgusted looks on their faces and folded. I just called. I lost to a rivered Aces full.

This was a tough spot position-wise to be in. In retrospect I think I played it fine. If I were in a different game with different opponents I would have played it differently, but in this instance I have no regrets.

CJ