PP 15/30 midset no good?

kurosh · #1 02-07-2005, 12:07 AM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.33 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (21.33 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 24.33 BB

MP1 is 22/6.98/.95
MP2 is 21/15.79/1.33

I put MP1 on 22 or 88 and MP2 on AA. UTG is a complete idiot so I ignored him. I was planning to CR the flop but the way it went I thought they might cap it for me.

Sidenote- I started posting 15/30 hands in the SS forums as recommended but I'm either getting no responses or responses from people who don't play the game. So I'm coming back here.

elmo · #2 02-07-2005, 01:53 AM

Preflop: Standard

Flop reads: MP2 might have AA, but could easily have any 2 broadway hearts, Ahxh, or AKo. MP1 might have a set like you said, or 2-pair, the flush draw, TT-JJ.

Turn updates: So you decide to CR presumably, and it comes back 2 cold. The fact that MP1 led again would suggest that he is on Ahxh, 2 pair, or a set. It was very likely that MP2 was going to raise given the range of hands we put him on on the flop... they all got there except the broadway heart draw. I say you are ahead here most of the time against 2 opponents who must call you check-3bet. But anyways, you decide to just call. MP1 only calls, suggesting no made hand better than 2 pair imo. Now you have to think your hand is good unless MP1 has AA.

River: Everything but the unlikely 67 missed. Checked to MP2 who bets. Wouldn't you be betting your Ax of hearts or AK here? UTG, who we didn't expect to be a factor folds, and now you are left with the decision to CR or go for the overcall. I would check-raise most players, because they will not lay down 2 pair or, in MP2's case, AK/AhXh.

I got tired writing this, and kind of skimped on the river, but my main point is I would definitly CR the turn, as there are lots of draws that people will have to call with, plus when they have AA, if you choose to call down it will not cost anymore( 4 on the turn and 1 on the river, as opposed to 2 on the turn, 3 on the river if you got ahead and call, then CR the river and get 3 bet) plus if makes it expensive to draw at you when you are ahead.

Blah, I'm not even going to read that. I hope I said something of value, and if not, oops. I'm going to sleep, hopefully I read this tomorrow and don't laugh at myself.

commodore64 · #3 02-07-2005, 01:56 AM

how is limping with 55 after 1 limper standard?

kurosh · #4 02-07-2005, 02:01 AM

There was a poster which changed it from a fold to a limp for me.

kurosh · #5 02-07-2005, 02:13 AM

Let me explain my thought process. Preflop, since there is one poster, I think with a call I can expect at least one more limper.

On the flop, MP2 probably has Axh or an overpair. MP1 concerns me. He's passive and just bet into the PFR. He also 3-bet him. 2-pair? You think a 22VP$IP is playing 25 or 85? Flush draws don't generally bet into the PFR, I think a CR would be more likely if he's doing it for value and few do. 99-AA would've been raised PF. Maybe not 99 or TT with his stats. So what's left? A set.

On the turn, when MP1 continues to bet into the PFR, that further shows the strength of his hand. A5h is a possibility but again I don't think he'd bet into the PFR on the flop with that. Then when MP2 continues to raise after being shown all that strength, the only thing I can see him doing this with is AA or AKh AQh AJh. They can't both be on flush draws so one of them has to have a bigger set than me. I'm not calling because I want overcalls. I'm calling because I want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. I dont think I have the best hand.

elmo · #6 02-07-2005, 02:17 AM

Perhaps I should restate. I origninally had nothing about preflop. So I brilliantly added that. I fold this every time, but my VPIP is like 16, and I didn't feel like arguing over that [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

etizzle · #7 02-07-2005, 02:36 AM

heres what clarkmeister/mike i. would say, and they would be right:

raise the [censored] turn, jesus christ

stop play scared or stop playing poker. This is so goddamned easy. If someone happens to have 88 or AA then great. If your turn 3 bet just gets capped then you can check and call the river. You need to lose a lot more money here if in factyou lost.

bicyclekick · #8 02-07-2005, 02:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how is limping with 55 after 1 limper standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's more often than not THE CORRECT PLAY (and i'm not talking about with a poster, either). Maybe not standard cause you guys all wanna play so damn tight, but limping encourages limping and you're likly to take the flop 5-6 ways for a bet or 2. I'll take that with 55 any day. You're gonna get paid off so well when you hit your set cause these guys almost always overplay their hands.

kurosh · #9 02-07-2005, 03:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
heres what clarkmeister/mike i. would say, and they would be right:

raise the [censored] turn, jesus christ

stop play scared or stop playing poker. This is so goddamned easy. If someone happens to have 88 or AA then great. If your turn 3 bet just gets capped then you can check and call the river. You need to lose a lot more money here if in factyou lost.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a mentality here that set over set is incredibly rare. It's really not that rare. It needs to be taken into consideration when everything points towards it. It's not just "I have set. I have best hand." A passive opponent is being incredibly aggressive on a rag flop. I've put down my thought process on why I think one of them has to have a set. They can't both be on A-high flush draws.

Ten7offsuit · #10 02-07-2005, 03:18 AM

I would totally 3 bet that turn. Set over set is so rare (at least for me) that if I hit a set and there aren't any likely straights or flushes on the board, I'm betting/raising every chance I get.