River action?

Elbie · #1 02-14-2005, 09:34 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 6 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: (8 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

Check/call, Bet/fold to a raise, Bet/call a raise ?

chief444 · #2 02-14-2005, 09:57 AM

One thing for sure, I don't fold here. I would bet and call a raise. If he called down all the way with just a gutshot then good for him. But AK or AQ usually raise pf and a naked Ace SHOULD have folded before the river, making an Ace somewhat less likely. A jack is a good possibility and if you bet I think you'll often be called by a worse hand including a K,Q, J or worse two pair. Do you know anything about UTG?

Elbie · #3 02-14-2005, 10:12 AM

Don´t know much about him. During the few orbits that I have been at this table he has been rather loose preflop (probably sees at least 30% of the flops). Haven´t seen him do anything worth noticing postflop.

Fat Nicky · #4 02-14-2005, 11:04 AM

I like the bet and fold to a raise line. I think he calls with worse hands but will raise only if he's holding an A.

Milky · #5 02-14-2005, 11:53 AM

Can you really fold to a raise here? I don't think so. That J is a big scare card. The question is will he pay you off with a worse hand if you bet? I don't think he will. I like bet/call raise or check/call. By checking you induce a bluff when he might have folded his flush draw/whatever to your river bet.

Now, will he check behind any hand that he would have called the river bet with that you beat? I can't think of many. Therefore I lean more towards check/call. Is that too weak? Someone tear apart my analysis please [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Fat Nicky · #6 02-14-2005, 11:59 AM

don't you think the villain will call with QT, JT, QJ, K8, etc. enough times to make this bet profitiable.

Also, what will he raise with that you beat?

Maybe it's possible without a read, you have to call a raise. But, if I want to see a showdown against an unknown without paying 2 bets, I'm check/calling.

So, I guess I like these 3 in order.
1. bet and fold to a raise.
2. check/call
3. bet and call a raise.

chief444 · #7 02-14-2005, 12:09 PM

FatNicky,

I see opponents bluff raise scare cards far to often to fold this river. If I were going to fold to a raise without a read I think I'd rather check/call. But I still like the bet/call line best and believe it is the most profitable. Against a known passive though I agree it's a definite bet/fold.

Chief

Milky · #8 02-14-2005, 01:12 PM

You're right, he'll call with all of those hands. I think he would have popped you back on the turn w/QT though. I like the bet/call line best unless villian is passive then it's bet/fold.

Elbie · #9 02-14-2005, 03:15 PM

Thanks for all the comments.

I had difficulties putting villain on an Ace so I decided to bet out and call a raise. This is the part I wondered about. Should I really call a raise?

It turned out that I never was put to the test. Villain just called and showed K8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s and my hand was good