to agressive raisning with QQ on A flop?

marken · #1 02-14-2005, 04:41 PM

no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Is this raise good? should i only call or even fold?

Turn: (6.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

When he doesn't bet here, should i bet then?

River: (6.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Chairman Wood · #2 02-14-2005, 06:25 PM

I believe there is a situation in SSHE that is a lot like this. I don't have a copy of it with me here so sorry. You have no reads so this is a very tough situation. First of all I think this is a raise or fold situation. Second, I would be more inclined to fold this as the pot isn't all that big. Had it been bigger I believe you should take the measures that you did. I also believe you should bet the turn. If they are drawing, make them pay for their draw. Then it should get checked to you on the river and you can check behind there. If they are drawing they would not call a river bet unless they made their draw. I.e. you would get the most money from them the times they are drawing and lose the least when they have an ace. Obviously when you hit your set on the river like you did here you could bet.

marken · #3 02-14-2005, 06:30 PM

yeah, i guess you are right. considering the potsize i should have folded. I tend to get to agressive when i get into a bad streak. thanks for the comment!

deadmunny · #4 02-14-2005, 06:31 PM

My take on this is he probably has A+low kicker and is afraid of the Ak/AQ hence the check on turn.

I would probably bet the turn with his check (obviously fold to a reraise) He may laydown A2/A3 etc and check the river UI.

Regards D

meep_42 · #5 02-14-2005, 06:44 PM

This board is about as drawless as it gets, I don't think Hero is losing much by giving a free card here, if he's ahead.

And I don't think that anyone is laying down A/no kicker here, so a turn bet has little value except to get check-raised.
Hero got to showdown for 1.5 bets, I like that.

-d

adamstewart · #6 02-14-2005, 07:07 PM

I'm gonna make a risky statement here....

Fold the flop.

This flop is as drawless as it gets. You've raised preflop, and yet MP1 is betting into you. He would have likely raised AA-TT, so we can discount thoes as his holdings. I doubt he'd bet a middle/lower pocket pair into you with this flop. I doubt he'd bet a 6 into you on this flop.

His only likely holdings are an Ace - maybe a ten.

Raising the flop will likely earn you a free turn or a free river, but usually not both.

* Current pot is 3.25 BB's. So final profit, including another BB from the villain will be 4.25 BB's.
* Hero would have to put 2 more BB's for showdown (the flop raise plus another BB on either turn or river).
* Money is approximately 2.1:1.

* Is Hero good here 1 in 3 times? I don't think so.

(For the sake of simplicity I've ignored the number of rare number occurance of our Hero hitting his 2-outer for a set).

Everyone follow that? Any problems with my reasoning?

Adam

marken · #7 02-14-2005, 07:14 PM

But he could have JJ or KQ and bet into me as a semibluff to see my response. But i don't know, i'm not sure what to think.
A-x is the most likley, but also a JT or any T-x if he's agressive. To bad i didn't have any reads on him. But i have to keep in mind to choose my battles, this pot IS small, i still think i should have folded.