55, flopped set, two check-raise attempts, river fold

btspider · #1 02-04-2005, 05:45 PM

MP1 is a bit LAGgy over a small sample, but has shown a few winners.
CO has solid stats over a small sample (16/9/2.5).
Button is unknown.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, Button calls, 2 folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, Button calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Got dragged for bets, but this is fine right?

Flop: (17.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Button calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

sweet flop. i intend to check-raise.. and follow through even though button raises. CO cap looks like JJ or an overpair.

Turn: (16.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, MP1 raises, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

i decide to check-raise CO's JJ+ again. when MP1 check-raises, i'm thinking JTs/JJ/TT.. all common limp-reraising hands for loose players. follow through with the check-3bet, despite the range i put him on? CO doesn't have JJ when he just calls the c/r.

River: (24.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds...

crap... if CO raises MP1's bet, i'm probably toast vs AA. button's 3-bet looks like an idiot AJ who can't read the action.. or an aggro (on flop) KQ? do i have the 4th best hand? surely not the best, so i fold.

eric5148 · #2 02-04-2005, 05:57 PM

I've looked at this hand for 10 minutes and I'm getting dizzy.

I think it's ok.

BigAlChicago · #3 02-04-2005, 06:30 PM

As it stands, you are getting something like 17.5:1 to call two BBs on the river. Even if CO caps, you only need to win this hand 9% of the time for this to be +EV. While your hand is probably beaten, doesn't this hand deserve a call on the river?

hypermegachi · #4 02-04-2005, 10:35 PM

so many stop and goes i'm getting dizzy too

zeitgeist · #5 02-05-2005, 12:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Got dragged for bets, but this is fine right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't say I'm wild about the preflop calls. I don't even think I'd call in middle position with only one limper ahead of me, unless I was sure I'd get two more limpers and no raise. If I did limp, I'd call one raise, but not two - there's a good chance of a raise behind you, meaning you'll put 4 bets into a 17.5-bet pot. Sure, you have implied odds, but they'd have been a lot better if you could have seen the flop for one bet instead of four.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (17.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks,

[/ QUOTE ]

Call me a dull-ABC player, but with middle set and a flush and a (admittedly less likely) straight draw on board, I don't screw around; I just bet out and hope I get raised. Fortunately here, they raised for you.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (16.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks,

[/ QUOTE ]

Now there's two flush draws and a Broadway draw. They've seen you check-raise once; can you be sure they'll bet again (forgetting for the moment that they did exactly that)? I would lead out here too.

[ QUOTE ]
River: (24.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds...

[/ QUOTE ]

Like BigAl said: The pot is humungous and you're closing the action. The crying call has to be made. But I think the problem was getting involved initially. Although you were there and I wasn't, and I may be dizzy myself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

wipke11 · #6 02-05-2005, 01:11 AM

you should have been reraising on the turn when the guy in front lead into it because he likely hit 2 pair. the worst mistake someone can make in a big pot is to fold, I believe slansky said that in "Small Stakes Hold'em"

ghostface · #7 02-05-2005, 01:12 AM

I agree with everyone else on this one. When its two back to me I usually muck 77-22 against reasonable to slightly LAG opponents.

The river pot is so big it makes me want to call just cause I havent seen one that big in a while, much less had the chance to win one. Two bets there seems like pittance to pay for what would be the pot of the week for me.

I think your read is right that MP1 has AA as he cold called two on the turn but its so easy for him to have KK there and be out of line that I think you have to call.

cockandbull · #8 02-05-2005, 01:19 AM

I'd have bet the turn, but as you didn't i think you have to follow through with your plan of the checkraise. Set over set is rare, set over set over set is just freaky and i doubt people holding JJ, TT and AA.

With regards to the river, the pot is big so i'd probably not fold here. I'm guessing button has KQd.

I think preflop is fine.

best,

harry

Yeknom58 · #9 02-05-2005, 01:32 AM

Why not just bet the flop hoping to 3-bet.

I'd still CR the turn and if he raises again then I'll slow down.

The fold looks reasonble but I wouldn't be able to make this fold and would have likely called.

stanky · #10 02-05-2005, 01:55 AM

This is a situation where you're almost positive your beat but you can't fold because the pot is too big. Even if you knew that CO would cap on the river after you called, it still would be correct to call the two cold in my oppinion.

-pete