uncertain JJ - standards check

btspider · #1 02-01-2005, 06:23 PM

UTG+1 - 70/0/1.4 - has been getting lucky and mixing up random bluffs and slowplayed monsters

MP1 just sat down and posted in CO. he's shown nothing down yet.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (17.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB
Main Pot: 19.75 BB, between MP1, MP3 and Hero.

slogger · #2 02-01-2005, 06:52 PM

I'm trying to find a place where I'd play this differently, but I'm having some difficulty.

Preflop looks fine, and I like the flop 3-bet - UTG+1 could have a wide range of hands and MP1 could have as little as AK or TT. I want to see how these two guys react before proceeding and I wouldn't mind being checked to on the turn.

MP1's cap narrows down his hands a bit, IMO. This no longer looks like TT or AK, unless he's got the nut flush draw. It appears you're behind.

The turn card is not a good one. UTG+1 fires again? You say he's pulled some bluffs already, but we also know he could have any number of real hands in this spot - has he played any big hands fast on the flop to this point, or is slowplaying a way of life for him?

I think if MP1 raised here, you'd have a tough, but necessary fold (getting about 8.5-to-1) - too many ways you could be drawing thin to dead, and too many cards that could do you in on the off chance you're still ahead.

BUT, MP1 smooth calls here on a very dangerous board. Looks like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to me, but I suppose he could be playing AA conservatively given UTG+1's response to heavy preflop action . You're getting almost 17-to-1, which is not enough if you know you need to improve, but is probably enough given the moderate chance that you're ahead.

I'm thrilled to see UTG+1 check the river, and MP1's bet is laying you 19-to-1. A check-raise from UTG+1 would be very surprising at this point and Jacks are good more than 5% of the time here.

It feels weird to me too, but I think this is how you've got to play based on your limited read of MP1.

JackWilson · #3 02-01-2005, 07:57 PM

I don't think JJ can be good here at all. MP1 is bluffing the river? I know it's a huge pot, but are there _any_ hands (other than a pure bluff, extremely unlikely in this situation) held by MP1 that you can beat? That T burst your last hope (TT). I think I would have folded the turn.

EDIT: The only argument I can see for calling here would be paying for information on MP1.

rmarotti · #4 02-01-2005, 08:13 PM

Ni han.

btspider · #5 02-01-2005, 08:18 PM

that was my thinking exactly. it sucks, but its a huge pot.

UTG+1 was pretty random. he destroyed me by outflopping me 8 straight times. i then saw him make some hopeless bluffs at other times. for example, he heavily bluffed a 3362x board with KQs when a rock capped PF and eventually showed down AA.

not much else to say about this hand i guess..

results:
MP1 shows KK
UTG+1 folds (?? so random)

and i was folding if faced with 2 bets on the turn.

edit: oh yeah, i didn't cut the river action... obviously UTG+1 folded [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

molawn2mo · #6 02-01-2005, 08:27 PM

Well played.

MP1 might have just taken a stab at the pot on the river with AT or AK when UTG1 ran outta steam.

slogger · #7 02-01-2005, 10:01 PM

Jack, you're missing the point. Even if there is no hand aside from a bluff that you can put MP1 on, the call is a near no-brainer in a 19-bet pot. I'm not sure where you play online, but on Party 2/4, this bet is a bluff more than one out of 20 times.

Hero only has to be good 6 out of 100 times. 6 out of a HUNDRED!

If you're folding an overpair for one bet on the river in 16+ bet pots on a regualr basis, you're throwing a lot of money away.

JackWilson · #8 02-02-2005, 05:03 PM

I would hardly if ever fold an overpair on the river, but this particular situation is pretty bizarre...I'm not necessarily disagreeing with calling being the correct play. I'm more interested in why calling is correct if it is. If the only hand he would play this way that you can beat is AKs, comparing that with all the other possibilities and weighting for likelihood of being dealt each hand, are you good more than 1 in 20 times? IMO only a near maniac would play the hand this way with anything less than the AKs. Since we can't just put this guy on Stage 4 Insanity...?

Am I just being stupid? If so I apologize...I guess I play less scientifically than most on the 2+2 forums, but I'm trying hard to improve my (already profitable) game in that regard.

BTW, I play Paradise 2/4.

EDIT: One other thing I wanted to ask about - in your original analysis you say that MP1 smooth calling on a dangerous board makes you think he's on a draw with the AKs. I can see it that way, but in my experience the average player would pretty much always play it the exact same way with an overpair. They've been showing lots of aggression, no folders and now someone bets into them...they have to be worried about sets/straights at this point. I've found that to be the thinking of the average player. They're almost certainly not thinking "the board is scary i have to raise to protect my hand."