Should I value bet?

[TStoneMBD]

20/40 at TStone

CO in the hand is TurningStonePro. Button is way too loose, and the SB is the ultracallingstation donator. Amazing game. Button likes to bluff when checked to, and when I saw him grab chips to call my bet on the flop, I noticed that he was debating whether to raise or not, which certainly worried me.

Hero is BB with QTs

UTG1 limps, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG1 calls.

Flop: Qc8d3s
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG1 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: 8c
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

River: 5c
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Later on I asked TSP if he thought I should have valuebetted the river. He thought it was close but a VB. My arguement was that I saw the button reaching for chips to raise me on the flop, and that his coldcall preflop may have indicated a bigger queen. After hearing that TSP was a little undecided so I thought I'd share the hand. How's my line?

Results to follow.

[Brom]

Can you safely fold to a river raise here? If so I'd try for the river bet here. Also, does he grab the chips to deter a bet or not that tricky?

Button sounds like the type of player that would fail to bet a 2nd pair holding here if checked to on the river (due to his lack of a raise on the flop) yet would probably call down with it given how far he made it. If he does indeed have the 8 I'm guessing he finally pops it now and you can fold to a river raise. So bet IMO.

[worm33]

u have top pair, are any of these 2 capable of bluff raising? if not my gosh bet already

[HiatusOver]

It really seems like a value bet to me...not sure how it couldnt be.

[lil feller]

If the river is the 5d, I think I bet, but the club would deter me. Not knowing the texture of your game its tough to say, but if the SB is as awefull as you say, I don't think you can rule out him flopping back door and hanging around. Combine that with the fact that the "button likes to bluff when checked too" and I'm leaning towards letting him do just that. The purpose of value betting the river is to get called by an inferior hand, and the best way to beat people is to find where they make mistakes (like say bluffing when checked to too often) and making them make even more of the same mistake. That 8 on the turn could have easily stopped AQ from raising the turn (instead of the flop), and may have hit the loose SB. I just think there are to many ways you are beat here to risk a bet. Check, and let the bluffer bet.

lf

[JDalla]

My advice? Check the flop, turn and river, but raise whenever possible. If a third player caps any two streets you can safetly fold on the river. Also look out for dueces, the SB is likely on ducks.

[ggbman]

I think checking the river was fine here. If you are an EXTREMELY loose game, this could be value bet, but i don't think you miss much by check-calling the river.

Gabe

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Button likes to bluff when checked to, and when I saw him grab chips to call my bet on the flop, I noticed that he was debating whether to raise or not, which certainly worried me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your read -
1 - inducing a bluff by the Button seems likely.
2 - you can save yourself a bet or a fold if he decided to wait for the river to raise.

Induce a bluff or value bet. Can't do both. In this case, what would he call with you could beat?

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
20/40 at TStone

CO in the hand is TurningStonePro. Button is way too loose, and the SB is the ultracallingstation donator. Amazing game. Button likes to bluff when checked to, and when I saw him grab chips to call my bet on the flop, I noticed that he was debating whether to raise or not, which certainly worried me.

Hero is BB with QTs

UTG1 limps, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG1 calls.

Flop: Qc8d3s
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG1 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: 8c
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

River: 5c
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Later on I asked TSP if he thought I should have valuebetted the river. He thought it was close but a VB. My arguement was that I saw the button reaching for chips to raise me on the flop, and that his coldcall preflop may have indicated a bigger queen. After hearing that TSP was a little undecided so I thought I'd share the hand. How's my line?

Results to follow.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure how genuine the Button was in his "move" to raise you, alot of players will do this to intimidate you and prevent you from betting.

He could have a better Q, but I think he is more likely to have a mid pocket like 66/77 or overcards and wants to peel for free.

You have a value bet on the river as SB is probably calling with anything, and Button will call with his pocket and maybe overcards due to the paired board.

I think you'll be ahead often enough, and with SB in there, to make this an easy +EV value bet versus those times you are up against a better Q.

[Steve Giufre]

I think TPS was being a nice guy. Not close at all. Even if he does have a bigger queen he is gonna bet it on the end and you are gonna have to pay off. Like you said he is a calling station so punish him when you are ahead, he will call with a lot of worse hands. I wouldnt worry about being bluff raised at Turning Stone unless the villian is Robby, and even then I'm still betting.