Would you fold AA in this senario?

[FirstClash]

I recently discussed this with a friend.

Suppose you are at a single table tournament. There are 5 people left. 2 more people need eliminated before you get in the money. 3rd=$20 2nd=$30 and 1st=$50.

Every one has even chip stacks of 3000 chips.

3 people go all in ahead of you.

Do you call with AA and take the risk or fold and practically guarantee yourself to be in the money?

What is the mathematically correct decision?

Seems to me that your actually chances of winning the hand is between 50-60% with all 4 people in the hand--risking knocking you out of the tournament.

If you don't fold and win, you end up with 12,000 chips against 3000 chips.

If you fold, you end up with 3,000 chips against 9000 chips and 3000 chips. Or the unlikly senario where the pot is split, your 3000 chips against 4500, 4500 and 3000.

I say fold, my friend says call.

[SpeakEasy]

Assuming that the all-in players ahead of you are sane, logical players, you probably dominate their hands by 4:1 or better -- AK, AQ, KK or QQ. Easy call.

[Tom Bayes]

No.

[valenzuela]

I say fold because i have a very small bankroll( 10 bux)

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
I say fold because i have a very small bankroll( 10 bux)

[/ QUOTE ]
hahahahahaha

[FirstClash]

Considering what you said... I'm going to have to change my stance that the mathematically correct/most profitable choice in the long run is to call... You won me over.

But I see a lot of players who go all in with TT, JJ, KQ, and such... those hands have more outs and lower your chances of winning that hand down between 50-60%. The hands you suggested brings your chances of winning between 60-75% because you dominate them.

I guess if you are playing really tight players you are definitly better off calling... If you are playing semi-loose players, it could go either way.

[Mr_J]

Like someone said, it depends on the range of hands.

You'd need to win 72% for it to be even (calling vs folding). This is assuming that with 12k vs 3k you have a 75% chance of winning and 25% chance of coming 2nd. This also assumes of you fold you have a 25% chance of winning, and 37.5% chance each of 2nd and 3rd.

Those winrates will be different for everyone though, so this is really just a guess.

Confronted with the situation in real I'd call, but after looking at it like this I really don't know. Maybe someone can come up with more accurate figures.

[microbet]

Calling is probably worth around $25 with a bit better than 50% to win the hand and then a good chance to go on to win.

Folding is worth at least $25 as you will be tied second in chips.

So folding is probably better. But, in real life I would probably call. Maybe not, now that you made me think about it.

[RobGW]

If you fold you automatically make the money(in most cases). If you go on to win 20% and are 40% to place 2nd or 3rd your EV is (.2*50+.4*30+.4*20)= $30. If you call, you'll win 55-65% of the time. If you win the hand you'll have about a 80% chance to win and 20% chance to take 2nd. Your Ev is (.6*.8*50+.6*.2*30+.4*0)= $27.6. Now there are other considerations. How do you rate against the others players? Considering three people are going all in which is almost certainly a mistake, I would just muck here and try to outplay whoever is left. Would your decision change if this was the final table at the WSOP where the difference between 5th place and 3rd is life changing $$?

[Pokerscott]

your absolute best outcome is something like

initial better: A8o
1st caller: AKo
2nd Caller: KK

Here you are a 78% favorite and it is a good call.

I guess at worst you could have something like:

initial better: JTs stealing
1st caller: QQ
2nd Caller: AA

The second caller is in a very similar position to you. They have to be VERY sure of a win to justify getting in the middle of all this. This makes AA here not really impossible...(I have seen AA vs AA but never your scenario btw [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

Now you win 2%, lose 39% and tie 59%...not so great [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Pokerscott