Set on Monotone Flop

[El Maximo]

I did a search and found this scenario is discussed occassionally. What's the best play here:

$10+1 NL SNG

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

MP1 (t710)
MP2 (t665)
MP3 (t995)
CO (t565)
Button (t1000)
SB (t575)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t1025)
UTG+1 (t815)
UTG+2 (t875)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, UTG+2 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t225) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t125, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t125, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, Hero ??

At this level this raise could mean flush, flush draw, or complete bluff. Im leaning towards flush draw and if he has a made flush I still have outs. Anyone else push here?

[Sidekick]

At the $10+$1 level this bet could be just top pair, an over pair, a straight draw or as you said a pure bluff.

If I have top set here then I will push about half the time this early in a tournament. But you could be looking at set over set here or the made flush.

This early in the tournament I will usually fold my bottom set to a bet like this on a monotone board, unless I've seen villain make several really crazy plays. If I think villain is a complete fish then he's going to have to prove his hand is better at showdown to my all-in.

[rachelwxm]

fold here is my default play. Over bet pot means either he is trying to protect his 2 pair/set or baby flush. You are dog if he has set or baby flush but a favorate against 2 pair or bluff or flush draw. I don't like gamble at this stage. But that's just me. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[therock]

Tough hand to play out of position. I would check the flop. There are just way too many players to follow and at the $10 buy-in, you are just asking for someone to push with A-8, Over-pair (99-1010), Ace of diamonds, etc.

I'm not saying give up on the hand, I just think your bet on the flop is inviting someone to push you out. If you can see the turn for a reasonable price and the turn card is not a diamond, fire away. A lot of players love pushing here with the A diamonds with two cards to come, but will happily fold to a big bet if only one card remains.

[El Maximo]

I like your line of thinking Rock. This situation doesnt come up that frequently but next time I hope to have a strategy already in place. I came over top his raise and he showed 95s for the flush. No help came on turn or river.

[rachelwxm]

This is a tough spot.

While check this flop is fine, but what if he over pot bet? He could either have one pair or made flush. If you call, you are likely pot commit yourself. That's why I don't like check this flop. Are you check fold a pot bet?

[Absolution]

It sucks, but I have to say check-fold here to 7 players in a low buy SnG if you get a real bet (a lot of times you'll get a minbet for essentially free cards). If the board wasn't so connected and monotone it would be an easy push. Later on you won't have to worry because you won't get 7 people limping with crap. You have nothing really invested and you didn't get the flop you wanted. Let it go this early.

Oh, and I disagree that they won't call for one more card on the turn if you push. I go out to that often (it then takes all my might not to berate the guy). I'm not saying it's a bad idea to push on the turn, but just don't be surprised if he calls with a 4 flush this early. It takes a couple of orbits to get rid of the chasers.

[therock]

I would check fold this to a pot bet. I would call about $100 and then push if the turn card was not scary (i.e. no diamond or staight card). I play the 15's at PS and near this buy-in there are so many idiots I would look for a better opportunity.

[slickpoppa]

Cmon guys, this is a $10 SNG. You are giving the players at this level way too much credit. There is no way that you can fold this. Sometimes he will have the flush, but in my experience, more often he will not. And even if he does have the flush, you are almost getting the correct odds to hit your full house.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
I play the 15's at PS and near this buy-in there are so many idiots I would look for a better opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that there are so many idiots is why I would push here.