KJs - Terrible Turn, Value bet the River?

[JoshuaD]

Both Villians are LA-P's by Bison's autorate. Both had around 30 hands when this one came up.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero ????

That A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was probably the worst card in the deck for me. So do I value bet that river?

My analysis: A flush will raise me here nearly every time. An Ace or two pair could also raise here, but other than that, I can't think of any hands that would raise this river with the aggression I've shown. That said, I figure I can safely bet and fold to a raise, even getting 11:1 on the call.

Knowing that, it looks like it's a good value bet. They've been calling me from the flop, so I could easily have a weaker king or a ten beat. One of them could have spiked the A on me, but he hasn't shown any aggression. This doesn't necessarily remove the A from the realm of possiblity; he could be cowed by the flush draw coming in. However, the lack of aggression all the way through makes me very inclined to bet.

So, should I value bet this river, and If I am raised, can I safely fold?

Thanks.

P.S. Any criticism on any other street is also appreciated.

[DeeJ]

Someone could well be going for overcalls with a flush at the turn. I think you can value bet and fold to a raise (here with 2 players). Tricky!

[JoshuaD]

Those of you voting "check through": Please post up a longer explaination. I imagine you've got a good reason for voting the way you did, but I don't know it, and I'd like to.

[JoshuaD]

.

[Fat Nicky]

I like a value bet here. Most players raise their made flush on the turn and both of these guys could be calling down with a 10 or a medium pocket pair. If you are behind, it's to an Ace that didn't raise because they were afraid of the flush. I would be expect to be raised here, but if I was, I don't see what you are beating to call the raise.

[DeeJ]

I voted to check through cuz I'm weak and feeble.

I was worried about overcalls (flushes not declaring their hand too early) and also about Aces (who are afraid of the flush) and also loopy twopairs etc checkraising when there's no sign of flushes. But I don't think it would be too much of a mistake to bet here either, and fold to a raise.

[caretaker1]

I voted for check through. I don't see many hands that you beat calling you here, so I don't see a lot of "value", but I see a lot of hands like two pair, KQ, QJ (straight), Ax, or an unlikely set that will call but, as mentioned previously, might be too afraid to bet into the possible flush. Also, as also mentioned, you could be up against a flush waiting for a river raise.

My $.02