River raise

Trix · #1 01-14-2005, 01:22 AM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

BB is very loose and very aggro, he have been betting into me alot and with very little. Putting him on any draw, any pair on the flop would be giving him too much credit.

MP is very loose and very passive. He calls any pair, any overcards, any one overcard+backdoor, any A, any gut on the flop and fold only the worst of those on the turn. I obviously dont know his river coldcalling standards, which is why I´m posting this, so people who have played more hands with these guys than I have can tell what their experience is.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

River: (7.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises ....

If you also could say how often you think this will win the pot in percentage, then it would be nice.

thx.

fyodor · #2 01-14-2005, 01:29 AM

I don't think you will win 25% which is about what you need here. You will get called a lot more than that at the Party 5/10 if either of them has a pair.

I also think your preflop raise is a little loose even for 5 handed. Or maybe I'm too tight.

Irishboy · #3 01-14-2005, 01:44 AM

fold pre-flop

Trix · #4 01-14-2005, 01:51 AM

The EV of the river play is much further from 0 in than the preflop play, so can we talk about that instead ?

Rubeskies · #5 01-14-2005, 02:36 AM

I think preflop play is fine.

Both opponents are very loose and quite possibly are able to make the elusive bluff call with A high/underpair. I think that is what makes the raise -EV.

Danenania · #6 01-14-2005, 04:04 AM

Why not raise the flop hoping to get heads-up then call BB down no matter what? I think this would make things easier.

The river raise needs to work about 25% of the time to show a profit and I don't think it will. I think it might work 10-15% of the time, mostly because this guy will be calling with any A-high and any K-high that beats yours. Also if he is as crazy as you say he might bluff reraise sometimes and you can't call. ALSO there is a decent chance of MP calling 2 cold with any pair if he is unsettled and paranoid of BB's aggression.

Jeff W · #7 01-14-2005, 04:49 AM

I think the flop is a good spot to raise for a free card. Will BB often 3-bet the flop or call and bet the turn without a legitimate hand or draw?

On the river I think you win ~5% of the time. If both players have random hands, your equity is ~11%.

Pre flop: I think this raise is fine. I wouldn't raise K8s.

Scotch78 · #8 01-14-2005, 05:32 AM

The BB seems like a big bluffer, so he is probably going be afraid that other people bluff him a lot. Kinda like when I call my girlfriend a lying, cheating bitch and don't let her go out clubbing with her friends because I'm a lying, cheating bastard. No way do I see him folding for one more bet after he has bet every street.

On the flop, I would like to raise for a free card and to clean up my king outs, but I don't think either will work. BB's lagginess can foil the former and this board almost certainly gives MP something that meets his calling standards. I see even less value is popping the turn.

Scott

Alobar · #9 01-14-2005, 04:11 PM

I dont like it.....at all. MP is a huge loose calling station it sounds like. So he's still going to call 2 cold with anything other than something with a 9 in it. Which he would fold anyway. You still also have to get the BB to fold too, he is going to call with ANY peice of the board, and prolly even A high. So basically, your only chance to win I think, is if you already have both of them beat. In which cse, just call and pray.

I like a flop raise in this spot, try and get it heads up with an aggro BB who you may be ahead of, and then use your position.

I dont make this raise preflop.

Benman · #10 01-14-2005, 04:33 PM

I tell you how I'd play this. Raise the flop and drive out the 3rd player. Then take a piece of paper and cover up the board cards. If checked to, bet both the turn and the river blind. Don't look at the board unless you get played back at. I'm serious.