Missed Value Bet, Or Good Check?

[gaming_mouse]

One more on my favorite subject.

Villain was tight weak. After 30 hands:

VPIP=22%
Post Aggr: 0, 0, 1

I asked myself, what hands does he call with that I beat? And it seemed that > 50% of the time he was beating me if he called. I'd like to hear any arguments to the contrary.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (7.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

[adamstewart]

Even though you only have 30 hands with him so far.... what was villain's PFR%?

[adamstewart]

Good check.

You're right, you won't beat too many hands that he'll call with (maybe TT, 99, AQ). There are a lot of others he'll call with, and beat you with ( flush, AA, KK, QQ, AK, KQ, KJ ... yadda, yadda).

Adam