Misinterpreting Ed Miller 101: A 77 hand

[SomethingClever]

Tell me if I'm screwing this concept up.

I have 77 in MP. Two limpers to me, I call, two more limpers after me and the BB checks. 6 players see the flop, which is 8 5 4 rainbow. It's checked to the player to my right, who bets.

I raise?

Because.....

1) I could be ahead
2) I possibly fold hands like A4 and A5
3) I have 6 pretty rock solid outs if I'm behind

[Nick C]

I think raising is fine, because you could be ahead, and if you are you want to thin the field so that there are fewer overcards out there that could catch and beat you.

I don't think any of your outs are rock solid if you're behind, though. Catching a 6 could give you a chop (and you'd lose to 97) and catching a set could simply give you a redraw to a boat at the same time someone else makes a straight.

Raising does improve your chances of not losing (or chopping) in the ways I just described, but I do think that at a table where six players are seeing the flop, it might be hard to get others to fold hands that contain a 6 or a 7 on the flop. Still, you would be facing the field with two bets cold, and I think that's your best chance here.

[TripleH68]

I am reading SSH right now so this is fresh in my mind.

The fact that the pot is small makes the play feel uncomfortable, but this is the very reason other players will fold. Correct?

If you isolate the bettor do you take a free card on the turn or bet again?

The risk/reward aspect of this play seems difficult to compute...anyone?

[BaronVonCP]

The players I try and play against don't take pot size into account when making their decisions.

[Avatar]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise?

Because.....

1) I could be ahead
2) I possibly fold hands like A4 and A5
3) I have 6 pretty rock solid outs if I'm behind

[/ QUOTE ]

And to add:

4) To fold out overcards.

So all of the above together are viable reasons.

[wuwei]

Your analysis didn't mention anything about pot size, which I think is the most important thing to look at in this kind of situation. In that sense you're missing a huge concept as to why Ed says to make plays like this.

If I had a good read on the bettor that he would make this bet with any piece of the flop or a draw, then I'm inclined to make this raise. If I don't have a good read, the fact that the pot is not huge combined with my impression that my outs are good but not "rock solid" means I just call and see what happens on the turn.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
The players I try and play against don't take pot size into account when making their decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my biggest concern about this type of play. Players who only play their own cards and dream of hitting a big pot constantly...calling stations.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
Your analysis didn't mention anything about pot size

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but it's easy to calculate given the scenario.

6.5 SB.

Is that too small to go after?

[winky51]

Raising is the right play in my opinion.
FLOP 8 5 4 rainbow
YOU 77

The better could have any of the following:
an over pair: 99
a draw: 98, 87, 65
a made hand set or 76
2 pair 54
or an 8 A8, K8, T8

Against all of these hands except the made straight you have 6 outs. Vs a smaller 2 pair with have 9 outs. So raise is correct to drive out the other players and it just might get you that free card. There are 6 SB in the pot and you are raising 2. You are getting 3:1 pot odds and your odds to hit your 6 outer are 3.1:1 not including implied odds and the fact you will most likely get a free card. Only 2 pair or a set will reraise here. A made straight will check raise the turn most likely, remember bad players.

[Demana]

The idea is that you want to be giving people the incorrect odds to call so that in the long run, you are making the play that will win you the most money.

Raising at this point does a couple of things:

1) The pot is now 7 SB. Had you not raised, they would have gotten 8:1 on their money and that is good for just about any draw out there. However, by raising you have cut their odds to 3.5:1, which means that it is unprofitable for any straight draw or A5 or A4 to call on the turn (an all-in would have the correct odds to call since they will see both the turn and river).

2) Any decent player at the table will fold overcards when facing two bets. Lots of bad players will not, but they're going to be coming along for the ride anyways and the raise punishes them for their chasing.