My Big Leak - Not Value Betting the River

frank_iii · #1 12-22-2004, 12:13 AM

This is my third whiffed induced bluff in the past 15 minutes. BB is a LAG who cannot fold on the river. I'm going to sit in the corner and hit myself over the head with page 193 of SSH right now.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 9d Tc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Ks Qc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 6.25 BB.

Cardzy · #2 12-22-2004, 12:26 AM

I don't know, I suppose you might have missed a bet here, but I would have checked myself. If you bet and were raised would you have folded on the river? I know I wouldn't have against a LAG, so it would have just cost me an extra bet if I did bet. I like the check myself.

frank_iii · #3 12-22-2004, 12:36 AM

If you don't think that's bad (which it is), try these on for size:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (7.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jd Kd (two pair, kings and jacks).
Button has Jh As (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.75 BB. 

-------------------

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (7.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qd Qc (one pair, queens).
MP2 has 9c 9h (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.75 BB.

milesdyson · #4 12-22-2004, 12:37 AM

KJs hand is by far the worst.

frank_iii · #5 12-22-2004, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
KJs hand is by far the worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

I groaned right after I hit the check button.

What's REALLY bad about this particular hand is that I had just checkraised this opponent in the previous hand.

I think it's because I just began 3-tabling. On a 1024x768 screen. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways.

droolie · #6 12-22-2004, 01:16 AM

How can you think missing a value bet when the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits is that bad? It completes a flush and gives a chance for 3rd pair to now be trips. I check this every time and feel lucky when I take down the pot.

frank_iii · #7 12-22-2004, 08:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How can you think missing a value bet when the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits is that bad? It completes a flush and gives a chance for 3rd pair to now be trips. I check this every time and feel lucky when I take down the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a good player you're absolutely correct. But the opponent is a LAG who will showdown anything on the river. In fact, I'd already seen him showdown/call 8-high in the current orbit.

Unless I'm misreading SSHE's section on value betting the river, I think I'm missing out here.

bigchips · #8 12-22-2004, 04:58 PM

Yes when the Ace came on the turn and the LAG didn't raise and didn't come out betting on the river you could probably assume that the draw he was on didn't hit, so you have the best hand so bet that river for value. I've even gotten reraised on the river in situations like this by LAGs, hoping to fold me, even though they have crap.

frank_iii · #9 12-22-2004, 05:16 PM

I just realized that I posted the wrong hand for the top message...this wasn't my 3rd whiffed induced bet at all. This was just one of many missed value bets from last night. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I'll just save that other hand for a rainy day. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

edit: I think I've posted this before, but I'm seeing an abnormally high number of bluff raises on the river these days at party $0.5/$1.

dangerous_badman · #10 12-22-2004, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
edit: I think I've posted this before, but I'm seeing an abnormally high number of bluff raises on the river these days at party $0.5/$1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can relate. A few days ago I rivered a straight in a big multiway pot. The aggressor throughout the whole hand (who turned out to have flopped top set) is in the seat to my immediate left, so I c/r the river and get an extra bet out of everyone. For some reason this sends him into an uncontrollable rage, and he starts calling every PFR I make regardless of what he's holding, desperately trying to put a beat on me, and checkraising every river in an attempt to make me fold, resulting in [censored] like this:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results not in white below:
BB has Jd Qd (one pair, threes).
Hero has Kd Kc (two pair, kings and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.25 BB.

I tell you the guy was worth his weight in gold. A few orbits later we go headsup again, he raises the river and I three-bet with JJ on a Q-high board. He calls and shows king-high (God only knows why he even called). He left the table after that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

In a more general sense I have seen more weak players than usual raising rivers with nothing to try and take pots of late, don't know if that's mere coincidence. It always seems to be in the most misguided of places, though, like when the pot's about 20BB and I am clearly not folding for one more lousy bet...