EV and Variance Killers

[Dave H.]

Naphand, I assume a well known poster, was responding to another post and came up with what I thought was a great starter list for myself (and others hopefully). I was hoping that others would add to this list where he posted, but it was in the middle of a LOOONG thread and therefore probably didn't get the attention it deserved. I thought it would be a good idea to ask others to add to it in a separate post since his list helped/reminded me. NO REASONS ARE TO BE CONSIDERED INCORRECT, PLEASE!

Here is our starter list from Naphand:
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What are the factors in a downswing which cause us to either increase our variance or reduce our EV? Here is an off-the-cuff list, additions and discussion could prove productive, even if people think they have a highly personal/individual flaw.

(1) Tilt - overplaying hands against a fish that could suck a football through a straw.

(2) Missing value-bets due to "fear of the nuts" or even just any kind of suckout.

(3) Focussing too much on one player.

(4) Not really focussing on any players (the "numb distraction" thing).

(5) Playing too long and too tired.

(6) Limping into more hands, to play more hands against the fish at less cost.

(7) Playing way too tight.

(8) Sitting out after small wins.

Anyone?



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[Cerril]

Well I'll give the two big ones.

Things we do to increase variance:
1) Seeking out small +EV situations.

Things we do to reduce our EV:
1) Avoiding high variance situations.

[shummie]

A related question: In Hold’em, which decisions are more important in terms of variance? Those maid pre-flop, on-the-flop, turn, or river?

Stated differently (assuming variance is increased when slightly +EV actions are taken): Where do most of the slightly +EV decisions occur in Hold’em?

Discuss.

After I think about it for a while, I will post my opinions.

Thanks,

Jason

[balkii]

Where do most of the slightly +EV decisions occur in Hold’em?

Preflop.

[Justin A]

Heads up situations where it's very hard to narrow your opponents holdings.

Justin A

[barongreenback]

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(2) Missing value-bets due to "fear of the nuts"


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On the river this is my first problem area due to failing confidence. I think its often pretty major.

[Pepsquad]

1) Not slowing down soon enough when facing aggression from weak-tight opponents.

2) Limping with garbage from the button or paying 1 1/2 bets against a raise in the SB with trash. I do this too much in the name of just "sneaking a peak at the flop".

[rwinns]

Playing small pocket pairs and A-X sooted from early position.Also thinking K-J off soot is a good hand. These are all good ways to give away alot of bets.