Big semi-bluff vs. known overpair

[cero_z]

Hi everyone,

MadGenius1 and iceman have made some interesting posts regarding a hand MG played. It reminded me of a hand I played at Foxwoods (5-5 NL), where I attempted to bluff a guy who I felt quite sure had an overpair.

I was in the SB with Qs5s. The Villain in this hand was in EP, and had limped in, along with 4 others. We took the flop 6 ways, with $30 in the pot.

The flop came a beautiful 7s 6h 3s, giving me a flush draw and a gut-shot. I checked, the BB checked, and Villain bet 45 bucks. I should note that when he did this, I was 90% positive he had AA or KK. Huh?

We have a little history. I'd played with him for a couple of hours, and knew him well already. He was a very tight, very cautious player, and he was nursing a pretty decent win at this point, having built his stack from 500 to about 2000 (I had him covered). He hadn't played a hand in about 45 minutes, despite the fact that the table was seeing $5 flops 4-8 handed all night long. At the beginning of our session, he and I had been at the must-move table, where I'd been concentrating on loosening him up: bluff him and show him; bluff him and show him. It wasn't working. Then, when we got to the main game, I'd forgotten all about him, and had gone to work on the much weaker opposition to be found there. Still, in the back of my mind, I was waiting to sock him with a big hand, when he was ready to take a stand against me.

OK--back to the hand. I knew it was AA or KK, because of his EP call, and the slightly beligerent look on his face when he bet. He was trying to say, "I have top pair, or something; if you can beat that, you ought to raise me." I'd seen him limp with big pairs twice so far, and I'd seen that look once before, where it worked perfectly, getting some schmoe to raise him and then pay him off with AT on a ten-high board. So he bet 45, a very loose chaser called, and I called. 3 of us to the turn, pot was 200-ish.

The turn card was an offsuit 8, making the board 7s 6h 3s 8x. I checked, he bet 150, and the chaser folded. I raised it 500 more. This put him in agony. He debated and debated, and looked at me a little angrily. Finally, with a hint of indignance on his face, he called. We went to the river heads up, with about 1500 in the pot.

The river was an offsuit Jack, and I put him all in for just over 1000. He again thought for a while, and folded. I didn't show that one.

The most interesting thing to me about this hand (and my toughest decision by far) is my decision to follow through on the river. I felt strongly he had KK, and had been setting him up all night to get a big call out of him, and he'd just called 500, at what seemed to be the commitment point of the hand. But, with this player, I felt it didn't matter; he just wasn't going to put his whole stack in with one pair.

Comments?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Great fold. You obviously had QQ.

[Prevaricator]

Out of curiosity, why did you opt not to show this one? Seems like showing it would go a ways to allowing a monster of yours to get payed off.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, why did you opt not to show this one? Seems like showing it would go a ways to allowing a monster of yours to get payed off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the decision not to show this one is pretty easy. Hero had been trying to tilt the villain all night and it hadn't worked. This opponent is going to have a hand like one pair a lot more often than he is going to have a small flush to hero's big flush or a set to hero's straight so hero will be able to use this play a lot more often. Why give this tough player any more information than you have to when he has shown no signs of cracking thus far?

Or, maybe I am a million miles off. Maybe hero didn't show this bluff because he had been showing bluffs all night and by NOT showing he thought he could tilt his opponent with uncertainty.

SpaceAce

[Post-Oak]

What do you do if a Q, K or A hits the river?

[AZK]

I was under the impression that you want to show a huge bluff like that, so that the next time you bet like this they don't give you credit and you stack them...? Do I have it wrong?

[cero_z]

Hi SpaceAce,

[ QUOTE ]
hero will be able to use this play a lot more often... Why give this tough player any more information than you have to when he has shown no signs of cracking thus far?


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Or, maybe I am a million miles off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you got it.

[cero_z]

Hi Post-Oak,

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if a Q, K or A hits the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. If a Queen hit, I would've done the same thing, because I just had a very clear mental picture of Kings here.

If an Ace or King had hit, I'd like to think I would've carefully re-evaluated before acting. But, playing the style I do means that sometimes I screw up and move in when he's got the nuts. I confess that it probably wouldn't have deterred me: when I saw the way he called on the turn, I was already mentally reaching for the chips to bluff him on the river. After all, it'd be 2 to 1 against him having a set, right? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

By the way, I have been suckered into bluffing off all of my chips like this before; some clever youngster in a Madison, WI, Pot Limit game got me to do it when he held an overpair that was relatively weak, given the board.

[Louie Landale]

Why on earth would you want to get the guy who folds too much to start calling too much? Just keep bluffing him and DON'T show it. If you must play games, bluff him and show the fish next to you.

And if you have been "setting him up all night" then stop bluffing.

Make mindful strategies and be consistent with them.

- Louie

[cero_z]

Hi Louie,

When I came to the game, it was not that good, and he was the only player with a sizable stack. I felt that the way to get it all was to rattle him and eventually show him a big hand. In the process, I hoped to juice up the table. I consider this a mindful strategy, and I use it to good results quite a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
Just keep bluffing him and DON'T show it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt that my way would win more. Also, I like to show bluffs with total garbage hands, because I feel more comfortable when I know exactly what they're thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
And if you have been "setting him up all night" then stop bluffing.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is the reason I posted the hand. I don't think this type of player is unusual at all. I started out setting him up, and then in the midst of this hand, realized that he wasn't going to crack, which meant that I could bluff on the river, in what is ostensibly a very bad place to try a bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Make mindful strategies and be consistent with them.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think consistency is hugely overrated in gambling and in life. Flexibility is much more valuable. War mindfulness, though.