PP 15/30: Flopped FH, River Double Pairs the Board

[Levi King]

Pre flop raiser (MP2): VPIP: 20% PFR 11% Agg: 1.45)
Cold caller (CO): Loose but not a lot of data to back that assessment up.

I'm sure some folks will question my pre flop call (exactly how bad was it?), but the real question for me is the action to take on the river.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

[Nightwish]

The preflop call is fine. You're getting just over 4:1, and you need to make just over 2 BB when you flop your set to make this call correct. I think the implied odds are certainly there.

When the CO caps the turn, he very likely has a flush as opposed to an 8. I would bet the river again, but just call if he raises again (unless you think he's a total retard).

[piguy24]

I think you're more likely to be up against a high flush than a full house here. Therefore, you should bet since it's likely MP will check behind if you check. Call a raise.

[ScottyP431]

I wouldnt worry about a full house. If this guy calls 2 cold in the CO with an 8... please reveal his PP handle so I can add him to my buddy list. I agree with "hes more likely to have a big flush" at which point 2 pair on board = scary for him, so a bet is in order. Call his raise- if he has some kind of 8 in his hand pay him off, as the money will be coming back to you soon

[surfdoc]

I think looking back to the preflop action is really where the money is here. Although the description of this player as loose means he may call with a wide range of hands preflop, there is just a greater chance that he is calling with Axs os 2 big spades than any hand with an 8 in it. Similarly, when he caps the turn it is pretty tough for him to do that with 8x. I agree with a river bet and call a raise.

[surfdoc]

wow I type slow.

[CRossiter]

I'd prefer to check and call here. If he is bad enough to cap the turn with just a flush then he's bad enough to bet the river for you, and this will result in the same gain of 1 BB you expect from betting the river (unless you think he will raise the river with a flush, which is totally ridiculous). However, the times he has 88, 33 and A8 (as he is loose he may have called a raise with A8s and decided to gamble on the turn), check-calling will lose you 1 BB and betting out then calling his raise will lose you 2 BB. So it appears that check-calling is vastly better.

[Stork]

The problem is that he may very well check his flush on this now double-paired board.

[TStoneMBD]

i think youre looking at quad8s here. check-fold.

[Levi King]

I was sure this guy was on the flush. I think the right river play was bet and call a raise.

He had A8 of hearts. Disappointing.