Call or raise this river --15-30 PP

[mrwatson23]

I open raise w/9c 9d in mid position, only the blinds call.
Flop comes 7s 8c 2c. Checked to me, I bet, sb folds, bb calls. Turn Jh. Bb checks, I bet, bb check raises, I call. River 9h. (7s 8c 2c Jh 9h). Bb bets, should I call or raise? If I raise, do I call if he 3-bets?

[JeffO]

raise and call if 3 bet.

[Kevin J]

You really think it's that automatic, huh?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
You really think it's that automatic, huh?

[/ QUOTE ]ABSOLUTELY.

[anatta]

He check-raised you with the board J782. So unless he was semi-bluffing a draw, he probably has a strong hand tied into the board. Since there are now 3 nines accounted for, the likelihood have him having T9 has gone down. Many players would need T9s for the call in the blind, and only one combo of that. While JT is possible too, he is much more likely to have something like 87s, 88, 77, 22, AJ, slowplayed a big pair, or even a hand like J8s or J7s.

Remember he puts you on a big pair since you called his raise, so his river bet, despite the 4 str8, isn't really that bold, and could be done with a lot of hands which you now beat.

If you get three-bet, well, heh, forget all of the above, and make the crying call.

[TStoneMBD]

this is a definite raise and call 3bet.

[anatta]

Yes. It seems to me that if its not correct to raise here on the river, then Hero made a mistake by calling the turn check-raise. In other words, if BB is passive enough that he would only check-raise the turn with the monster T9 or a set, then folding the turn is the play.

As it stands, he is only getting like 7:1 on a one card gutter and a pocket pair that makes a str8 if his opponent has a Ten. Six tainted outs which if all good is only 7:1. The only reason to call the turn is an assumed wide range of check-raising hands, the possiblity of a semi-bluff where 99 is good, and some implied odds that demand he raise if he hits.

[Kevin J]

Against certain opponents on Party, it would often be a good value raise, since you can expect to get paid off by two pair, an overpair, or lower set, enough times. But against other opponents, you're risking 3 bets to win (maybe) 1 more. It's really the problems that come from getting 3-bet. If you could always fold or always call, fine. But I don't see how paying off a 3-bet here is automatic. Then again, I'm a minority 2+2er, since I don't win 5bb/100.

[TStoneMBD]

4bb/100 is the standard kevin :P

[sthief09]

I don't see how you're possibly ahead if he 3-bets the river...