Low ROI?

[Vetstadium]

I know hard to answer, I know I shouldn't be complaining because I am making money but after an ROI of 28% at 250 SNG's at $22 my ROI at $33 is only 12.5% with an ITM of 40.88% after 276 of them. I know my major problem is my placements first 9.8%, second 13.9% and third of 17.8%. It just seems a lot of times since I play tight early I am usually left with 4 or 5 left and for the most part low chipped when getting to the money(which I know is your main objective) I am too short stacked and lot of times my only bet is a push. I know shouldn't complain but anybody else have this disproportionate firsts, seconds, thirds? Maybe sample size too small, maybe I should knock out another 250 and then see. Any thoughts appreciated thanks.

[Irieguy]

You're fine.

Irieguy

[MrMon]

I can't tell what your problem is, but I can tell you that you are losing money playing the $33 vs. the $22. You were actually making more money at the $22s than you are now at $33s, so you either need to correct your problem, end your streak of bad luck, or go back to $22s.

I think you're on to something when you say you need more firsts. Give us more details on your play and we might be able to diagnose something.

[Vetstadium]

You are correct in your observation I was making more money playing $22's the problem is I think the quality of play at both is the same. Maybe I am wrong maybe I should kick out another 100 $22's and see if I maintain near the same 28% if so then I guess should stick with them. Thanks.

[Phill S]

most likely your true ROI is between what you get for the 20s and for the 30s.

i dont think moving down is the answer here, most likely with 28% on the 20s you were on a very hot streak, and with the 30s youve gotton the cold side.

if your properly bankrolled stick to the 30s, short term you may make more in the 20s, but the 30s will work themselves out for the better in time.

Phill

[pshreck]

This seems to be a problem with many people. They think in the area of 300 tourneys is enough to even show a resemblance of a true ROI. Then, when you move up, you are surprised to see a different number.

28% is most likely from you running lucky. I was at 40% through my first 400 (yes 400) and thought I was a guaranteed atleast 30% + player for life. That was not true.

Without clearly defining what a streak is, and when it begins or ends, I would say you will have many streaks that last between 100-150 SNG's. (again this is not a clear definition) but a streak is like when you are anywhere more than 50% off your normal results. So if you were a 20% player, you could have a streak of 100 at 40% (or higher) or a streak of 100 at 10% (or even much lower).

So when you start making assumptions through only 275 SNGS, and making assumptions based off assumptions, then you will just confuse yourself.

Bottom line... as you are playing along, just be happy that you are making profit, and don't start making assumptions about what your true ROI numbers are.

Through now 2500 SNGS, I see nothing more than drastic streak after drastic steak, lasting anywhere from 25 -200 SNGS a pop. So trust me on this, 275 doesnt say anything.

[Losing all]

This post should be added to the FAQ. Well said, and 100% true.

[ilya]

So what's your ROI after 2500, pshreck?

[spentrent]

I'm on an ugly 6.7% for my last 90 10+1s and I WANT TO BREAK THINGS. That's what I get for withdrawing from my bankroll and dropping back a buy-in.

BAD MOJO!

[Vetstadium]

Thanks for the advice, I will have to put on another 500 and see where I stand. At least I know this (or think this), I can make money at this lol.